Premier League matchweek 34: The numbers to know

A critical weekend awaits for Tottenham's Roberto De Zerbi Alex Pantling/Getty Images Share articleMatchweek 34 is underway, with five games remaining for most sides. Manchester City have overhauled a nine-point deficit to go top, level with Arsenal on goal difference and ahead on goals scored. At the bottom, West Ham have dragged themselves out of the relegation zone. Tottenham are fighting to preserve a 49-year top-flight run. In between, 10 points separate sixth-placed Brighton from 15th-placed Leeds, with European places still in play. Here are four matches from the next round of games, and what the numbers tell us about them. Fulham have taken 71 shots and scored three goals in their past five Premier League games, a conversion rate of 4.2 per cent, and were goalless in four of those five. An xG of 6.89 over that stretch says the chances have been there; the finishing has not. Their 10-game rolling points-per-game average, plotted below, tracks the slide. Marco Silva has rarely had a full forward line since the turn of the year, with injuries and AFCON thinning one of the smallest squads in the Premier League. Over the first half of the season, only seven teams had scored more first-half goals than Fulham’s 11. Since the turn of the year, though, they have managed four — level with Wolves for fewest. Harry Wilson is Fulham’s most reliable route to goal and boasts 10 league goals and six assists, both team-leading, with eight of those 10 coming at Craven Cottage. His contract expires on June 30 and no extension has been signed. With Arsenal, Bournemouth and Newcastle still to come, a strong finish would strengthen his hand this summer. Aston Villa, level on points with third-placed Manchester United, should capitalise, but their defence invites trouble. They have conceded three or more in three of their past five, as many as in their previous 38 combined. Pau Torres did not start any of those three (against Chelsea, Manchester United and Sunderland). When he starts, Villa concede 0.93 goals per game and win 62 per cent of their matches. Without him, the numbers are grimmer: 1.5 conceded, 41 per cent. Ollie Watkins has six goals in nine Premier League appearances against Fulham, and six in his past five in all competitions, including a brace last time out. The striker will cause issues for the Cottagers. Unai Emery has won all eight of his league matches against Fulham. It is a 100 per cent record that only Pep Guardiola has bettered against a single opponent. Villa’s six-game winning streak began on April 25, 2023, three years ago to the day. Eight of the past 10 Premier League meetings between West Ham and Everton have produced under 2.5 goals. But, in a game likely to be decided by a single moment, Everton have a finisher in form. Beto has scored seven goals from 19 shots in 2026 — a 37 per cent conversion rate, or one every 81 minutes. Before the turn of the year, he had 12 from 111 (11 per cent), striking once every 271 minutes. But Beto faces a defence that has improved of late. They have collected two clean sheets in West Ham’s past three at the London Stadium, as many as in their previous 41 combined. Axel Disasi, on loan from Chelsea since February, has been at the heart of it. There have been five clean sheets in nine Premier League games since he arrived. Two points above the relegation zone with five games remaining, Nuno Espirito Santo has built West Ham into a survival side from the back. Everton are a different side away from home. They cede possession, averaging 39.6 per cent, and attempt more long passes, and fewer passes overall than at Hill Dickinson. They are direct, low-block, and it has worked well for them this season. Only Arsenal, Crystal Palace and Manchester City have a better defensive record on the road. Everton have conceded just 18 goals in 16 away games. London has been the outlier. Everton have won only three of their past 15 league games in the capital (D5 L7). The picture is complicated further by Jarrad Branthwaite’s hamstring injury, suffered against Liverpool, which weakens a defensive spine that has travelled so well. Everton sit 10th, one point behind eighth-placed Chelsea. West Ham are two points above the drop. Neither side can afford a draw, but their past three meetings have ended level. Two of the Premier League’s poorest sides over the past two seasons meet at Molineux on Saturday. Wolves are already relegated. Tottenham could still follow them down. Over that period, the two ever-present teams with the fewest Premier League points are Wolves (59) and Spurs (69). The two with the most defeats are Wolves (42) and Spurs (38). Injuries, poor recruitment and managerial churn have brought them here. Tottenham are without a victory in 15 Premier League games in 2026. If they fail to win, they will equal their all-time longest winless run in league competition: 16 matches, set between December 1934 and April 1935. Only Derby in 2007-08 (18) and Sunderland in 2002-03 (17) have had longer winless starts to a calendar year in Premier League history. Wolves are bottom of the table, their season having effectively been settled long before Rob Edwards’ appointment. On paper, there is no easier fixture left on Spurs’ schedule. But Wolves’ players still have reasons to perform, whether to secure a summer move or a starting place in the Championship. There is one positive for Wolves: they are unbeaten in their past six against Spurs (W4 D2). Tottenham showed signs of life against Brighton, outshooting them 13 to 10 and producing a higher xG (1.09 to 0.82). But signs of life have come before and led nowhere. They have won none of their past five league games after going 1-0 up, conceding 11 from winning positions. Head coach Roberto De Zerbi has won one of his past 12 league matches across two clubs. Xavi Simons, their best player in the draw against Brighton, has scored all five of his Spurs goals at home. He has taken 20 shots on the road without scoring. With Aston Villa, Leeds, Chelsea and Everton still to come, this is a must-win game in the run-in for Spurs. The past 20 meetings between these sides have never finished 0-0. Both teams have scored in each of the past five. Arsenal’s win ratio with Bukayo Saka in the starting XI this season is 73 per cent (16 wins in 22), but without him it drops to 45 per cent (five in 11). Over a full season, that gap is worth roughly 27 points. He missed the game against Manchester City, and Arsenal will be desperate to have him back as soon as possible. Saka alone may not be enough. Arsenal have lost four of their past six games across all competitions, more than in their previous 52 combined. Under Arteta, April is their weakest month with an average of 1.48 points per game, the lowest of any month in his Premier League tenure. The scoring has dried up, too: they have managed only four goals in their past five games. They have not scored from a corner or free kick in 10 matches, despite set pieces accounting for 40 per cent of their Premier League goals this season. Declan Rice is lethal from dead-ball situations, but in open play, Saka is still the player Arsenal rely on most. When they need something from nothing, it usually runs through him. Newcastle arrive in a fragile state. They have dropped 25 points from winning positions this season, five more than any other team and a stark contrast to 2024-25, when they dropped just seven — the fewest in the league. Their past nine league matches have all been decided by one goal: three wins and six defeats. Only Tottenham have lost more Premier League games in 2026. The attack has not adjusted since Alexander Isak’s departure. Nick Woltemade, the £69million ($93m) summer signing, has not scored in his last 14 Premier League appearances. Yoane Wissa has one goal from 14. Their most in-form striker is also their cheapest: William Osula. The bigger miss has been Bruno Guimaraes. Newcastle’s win percentage drops from 45 to 18 without him, goals scored fall from 1.5 per game to 1.1, while goals conceded rise from 1.3 to 1.8. He is their top scorer with nine and leads the squad with four assists. A hamstring injury has kept him out of 12 games this season, and his first appearance since 11 February came off the bench against Bournemouth, where he had a hand in Newcastle’s equaliser. He could return to the starting XI here. Joelinton will not be available, having missed Bournemouth while serving the first game of a two-match suspension for his 10th yellow card of the season. He will miss the Arsenal game as well, and the preferred midfield trio of Joelinton, Sandro Tonali and Guimaraes has not started together since 18 January. Newcastle are winless in 13 away games at Arsenal. They have scored one goal in their past nine visits to the Emirates. That does not bode well. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms