Power Monopoly Threatens Sharaa’s Rule in Syria

Syria has achieved notable progress on the international stage in the year following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The country has broken its isolation, opened channels with Western capitals, and secured political backing from new partners such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Yet this external momentum does not fully capture the situation inside Syria, where tensions are rising within the very environment that supports the new system. Questions continue to mount regarding the nature of the emerging political order, its ability to reflect Syria’s social diversity, and its capacity to manage security challenges and unresolved internal files.

Concentration of Power Within a Narrow Circle

In this context, Foreign Affairs, published by the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, released an article titled “Signs of a Looming Crisis in Syria.” The magazine noted that the international shift achieved under President Ahmed Sharaa would have been unimaginable only a year ago.

According to the publication, these diplomatic gains conceal profound internal strains. The same methods that enabled Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, led by Sharaa, to reach Damascus are now obstructing the state-building process.

The central concern is the concentration of power within a small inner circle. Political and security decision-making remains confined to a limited group of former HTS leaders. Government institutions, including the Cabinet and Parliament, appear to function largely in form rather than substance. Mechanisms for power-sharing or leadership accountability are absent, and the state lacks a comprehensive political vision for the future.

Minority Concerns

The question of minorities remains especially delicate. Religious and ethnic minorities, along with segments of the Sunni majority, continue to feel uncertain about their place in the “New Syria,” fearing the dominance of a single political ideology.

These anxieties surfaced most clearly in the northeast as transitional government forces entered areas previously administered by the Syrian Democratic Forces for more than a decade. Although a recent agreement to integrate the SDF into state institutions may ease tensions, Foreign Affairs stresses that the process remains fragile. Any misstep in the transitional phase could revive cycles of violence and jeopardize the international support Syria has recently secured.

A Fragile Transition

President Sharaa succeeded in unifying dozens of armed factions into a single army without internal conflict, a remarkable achievement by any measure. Yet the political transition remains unsettled.

The magazine observes that the new authorities have refrained from imposing a hardline Islamist program. Their focus has been on institution-building and forming a government and parliament that include a range of figures, among them women and civil society representatives. Even so, power remains centralized. All existing political parties have been dissolved, and no framework has been created to allow new ones to emerge. This has reinforced fears that Syria may be drifting toward a new authoritarian order.

Security Challenges

Concerns have intensified due to the use of excessive force in certain security operations, including those in the Coast and in Suwayda, where hundreds of civilians were killed and sectarian tensions deepened. The state also continues to struggle with criminal networks and armed groups that operate across several regions, undermining public confidence in the transition.

According to the magazine, the core problem is that the transition remains incomplete. New institutions have yet to persuade Syrians that they represent their interests or safeguard their rights. The leadership, despite tactical flexibility, has not offered meaningful political concessions or articulated a clear vision for the distribution of power. State-building has been approached as an administrative exercise, even though its political and social dimensions are equally essential.

The Path to Stability

The article concludes that long-term stability in Syria requires genuine political openness grounded in:

• Broadening political participation
• Strengthening the role of institutions
• Allowing political pluralism
• Integrating all components of society, including Kurds, on an equal footing

A leadership that clings to exclusive control risks losing internal legitimacy and eroding the external gains achieved over the past year. Syria’s future depends on convincing its citizens that the new state belongs to all of them, rather than serving as the preserve of a single group. The alternative is a state recognized abroad yet fractured at home, vulnerable to recurring crises and the possibility of renewed conflict.

This article was translated and edited by The Syrian Observer. The Syrian Observer has not verified the content of this story. Responsibility for the information and views set out in this article lies entirely with the author.

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