America's broccoli supply may have a geography problem.
More than 90% of fresh broccoli grown in the United States comes from California, leaving the popular vegetable's supply chain particularly vulnerable to drought, according to new research.
Researchers at Cornell University examined how drought conditions in California could affect broccoli shipments and whether increasing production on the East Coast could help protect the nation's supply.
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The study, recently published in the journal Agribusiness, used historical shipping and drought data to model the broccoli supply chain under normal, moderate-drought and severe-drought conditions.
Researchers estimated that California broccoli shipments could fall nearly 9% during moderate drought and more than 20% under severe drought conditions.
However, Christopher Valadez, president and CEO of the Grower-Shipper Association of Central California, cautioned against interpreting the latter figure as evidence that California has previously experienced such a collapse in supply.
The roughly 20% figure is "a statistical average" produced by correlating historical monthly shipments with periods of higher drought-index readings between 2000 and 2019, Valadez told Fox News Digital.
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"It is not a record of any single year in which the national broccoli supply collapsed by that amount," he said.
California's coastal growing regions have continued supplying the majority of America's fresh broccoli through multiple prolonged droughts by adapting irrigation, crop management and planting decisions, Valadez noted.
The Cornell researchers found that expanding production across 10 Eastern states could provide another buffer against California drought.
Because growing seasons vary by location, production could move north throughout the year, beginning with the Southern states during cooler months and shifting to the Northern states as temperatures rise.
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Under severe drought conditions, expanded Eastern production could reduce annual supply-chain costs by about $10 million while cutting transportation distances to Eastern markets by approximately 20%, the researchers' model found.
Expanding Eastern production could help diversify the nation's supply, Valadez acknowledged, but he said those regions face weather risks of their own, including summer heat, humidity-related disease and greater seasonal variability.
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"Sensible diversification has a role in risk management," Valadez said, while arguing that California's "proven adaptive capacity and quality advantages" should also be considered when assessing the resilience of America's broccoli supply.
California would remain a major source of broccoli even under the researchers' scenario. Rather than replacing Western production, expanded East Coast production could give suppliers another option when drought reduces California shipments.
