Political earthquake as One Nation leapfrogs Labor and Coalition in Victoria

Published: 23:57, 1 July 2026 | Updated: 00:26, 2 July 2026 A bombshell poll has delivered a crushing blow to Jacinta Allan, with One Nation overtaking both Labor and the Coalition in Victoria as voters turn against the state government. One Nation surged into first place with 27 per cent of the primary vote, leaving Labor and the Coalition tied on 26 per cent each. The poll of 5,516 Victorians was conducted between June 17 and June 28 by the Australian Financial Review/RedBridge/Accent Research.  The poll's margin of error was 1.4 per cent.  Voters have turned sharply against Allan, with her net favourability plunging to minus 42 per cent – among the lowest ever for a state premier.  'For Labor to win this election, it will be like a Lazarus with a triple bypass plus a knee reconstruction, but there is a pathway if they can improve their primary vote position by a few more points,' Redbridge director Tony Barry told the AFR. Labor ticked up one point from the February poll, while the Coalition slid two points and One Nation gained three. The Greens stayed on 13 per cent.  Labor needs at least a four-point improvement in its primary vote to chart a path to victory at the November election, Samaras said, while the Coalition would be forced to seek One Nation's support to govern on its current primary vote.  A bombshell poll has delivered a crushing blow to Jacinta Allan, with One Nation overtaking both Labor and the Coalition in Victoria as voters turn against the state government Voters have turned sharply against Allan, with her net favourability plunging to minus 42 per cent – among the lowest ever for a state premier The Victorian election will be held on November 28.  The results are set to heap even more pressure on Allan, with Labor MPs privately worried the party is heading for a devastating loss.  It comes as Victorians are growing increasingly furious over Allan's handling of crime, particularly youth offending.  There's also been a growing push for a urgent royal commission into corruption within the government's $109 billion Big Build program.  The Big Build corruption scandal involves allegations that organised crime figures and bikie gangs have infiltrated Victoria's major infrastructure projects through the CFMEU construction union.  Investigations indicate extortion, violence and billions of dollars in bribery-inflated project costs, with funds allegedly siphoned into ghost shifts, nepotism and payments to underworld figures such as Mick Gatto.  Allan has rejected calls for a royal commission.  The comments below have not been moderated. The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. We’ll ask you to confirm this for your first post to Facebook. You can choose on each post whether you would like it to be posted to Facebook. Your details from Facebook will be used to provide you with tailored content, marketing and ads in line with our Privacy Policy.