PETER VAN ONSELEN: I've watched opinion polls for 30 years. What's happening with Pauline Hanson's surge is truly remarkable

By PETER VAN ONSELEN, POLITICAL EDITOR, AUSTRALIA Published: 03:03, 10 June 2026 | Updated: 03:03, 10 June 2026 The latest polling once again signals a structural rebellion against Australia's major parties. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation overtaking both Labor and the Coalition in federal Roy Morgan (twice now!) and Newspoll data is a stunning development. The latest Roy Morgan figures released last night also reveal the lowest Coalition vote across all opinion polls in the party’s history, which is just incredible.  One Nation is at 29.5 per cent, Labor is on just 26 per cent, while the Coalition has registered a diabolical 17.5 per cent. No party was capable of cracking 30 per cent support.  If you take the Nationals vote out of the support for the Coalition, the Liberals are likely now trailing even the Greens, with the minor party securing 15.5 per cent support. These are the darkest of days for the Coalition, with the Nationals facing a total wipeout at the next election, and the Liberals more likely to be the junior partner in any post-election coalition with One Nation. It’s a far cry from the recovery Angus Taylor promised when rolling Sussan Ley as Opposition Leader. A Liberal Party with less support than even the Greens is an embarrassment. For the Coalition, a combined vote of 17.5 per cent is historically humiliating. The party of Robert Menzies has faded away, squeezed on two fronts - by One Nation on its right flank, and the teal independents on the centre-left.  Pauline Hanson wields a pumpkin during a community event And that’s before even confronting the fact that Labor holds the overwhelming majority of outer suburban mortgage belt electorates. As for the Nationals, it is hard to see how they survive the One Nation onslaught. Meanwhile, Labor can no longer sit back and just assume that the rise of One Nation is only a conservative side of politics problem. Not given that the government and the PM are fast becoming toxic among mainstream voters.  The latest Newspoll records Albo’s dissatisfaction rate at a whopping 60 per cent, the highest it's been for a PM since Tony Abbott’s final months in office. Abbott, by the way, has just been elected the President of the Federal Liberal Party, apparently to help Taylor get back on track. With Newspoll placing One Nation’s primary vote ahead of all comers, the traditional electoral pendulum is clearly broken. Historically, an unpopular government automatically benefited the opposition. Oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them, so the saying goes.  Today, however, the anti-government vote is bypassing the Liberals entirely, driven by frustration over broken promises, cost-of-living, housing stress, and migration pressures. This explains why the Liberal Party's current attack ads, warning that a divided right will re-elect Labor, are both tactically accurate and strategically devastating. Preferential voting can’t save the Coalition if the non-Labor vote fragments inefficiently across electorates. Especially if voters make their own preference decisions and ignore the deals head office has done. However, the defensive pitch Liberals are making to dissuade voters from supporting Hanson’s party is an admission of weakness. By asking them to return to the major party fold merely to unseat Albo, the Liberals are unwittingly conceding that they lack an inspirational or reformist agenda of their own. Or a leader capable of drawing back support with his own impressiveness. It’s really just an admission of collapse and irrelevance, not a revival strategy. Disillusioned voters finally feel like they have somewhere else to go, writes Peter van Onselen Voters are increasingly treating One Nation as their primary anti-establishment vehicle. This should alarm both sides of politics because eventually it risks becoming Labor’s problem too. Even in the short term many of its MPs could lose their jobs because of it.  Outer suburban areas are next on Hanson's hit list, having seemingly sewn up One Nation’s support in the regions. But it’s the Liberals and especially the Nationals facing the existential crisis. The two-party system remains propped up by electoral mechanics, but the public consent beneath it is fracturing, and the next election keeps getting closer.  Disillusioned voters finally feel like they have somewhere else to go, whether it's One Nation, the teals or even the Greens, and they are going there in droves. Peter van Onselen is political editor of Daily Mail Australia and has more than three decades of experience covering and studying federal politics  The comments below have not been moderated. The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. We’ll ask you to confirm this for your first post to Facebook. 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