PETER VAN ONSELEN: Everyone is reading the new polls about Pauline Hanson wrong. It's a reckoning for Albo - and disaster for Angus Taylor

By PETER VAN ONSELEN, POLITICAL EDITOR, AUSTRALIA Published: 06:21, 20 July 2026 | Updated: 06:22, 20 July 2026 Your browser does not support iframes. Pauline Hanson may have hit her political ceiling, but if that ceiling is a 30 per cent primary vote, the Coalition should be terrified and Labor should be ashamed. For a month, Hanson's opponents have waited for her to say too much, and she has certainly provided the material. At the National Press Club she declared multiculturalism a failure and demanded a 'monocultural' Australia. In Britain, she hung out with far right activist Tommy Robinson, blamed the abolition of the White Australia policy for Australia's migration problems, and floated largely unsubstantiated claims about Muslims exploiting welfare. Asked about a British proposal for mass deportations, she replied, 'I love it'. After 30 years in the public eye stoking controversy, nobody could accuse Hanson of hiding her light under a bushel now that she's gone mainstream. Far from it. Yet the One Nation leader's polling remains neck and neck with Labor - and well ahead of the Coalition. The White Australia remarks forced recent One Nation recruit Barnaby Joyce into a tortured defence, disavowing the policy while trying to salvage his leader's broader argument on assimilation. Conventional wisdom dictates that sustained exposure will eventually puncture the One Nation insurgency. A brief polling dip, via Resolve and YouGov, both saw One Nation drop to 26 per cent primary support, giving the political establishment hope it just might see Pauline off. Mind you, 26 per cent primary support for a minor party is still extraordinary. Then came the latest Newspoll. On 30 per cent, One Nation is 11 points clear of the Coalition and once again equal with Labor, which has slumped to its equal-lowest primary vote since winning government. For a month, Hanson's opponents have waited for her to say too much... But there's no secret inner Pauline Hanson waiting to be exposed by one more controversial interview Hanson (on right) at the Dolce and Gabbana fashion show in Sicily - just another colourful episode in recent political history. Photo via Nine News After a month of extraordinary, mostly hostile scrutiny, One Nation still commands significant support.  Hanson has said things that would destroy a conventional politician, yet her party remains level with the party of government, and her personal ratings are competitive with those of the major party leaders. There is no secret inner Hanson waiting to be exposed by one more controversial interview. Her political liabilities are well and truly already priced in, yet the major parties' liabilities may still be accumulating. So are we witnessing peak Hanson, or can she keep rising, despite her controversies, because of dissatisfaction with the majors? Not every One Nation voter admires Pauline Hanson. Many dislike her language and reject her extreme claims. Her support is built on a coalition of grievances: over migration, housing supply and prices, the cost of living crisis, net zero inconsistencies, and a political class viewed with utter contempt. And it's further helped by an increasingly arrogant PM and bumbling Opposition Leader. Whatever voters dislike about Hanson seems to matter less than what they despise about the political establishment. Predictable condemnation from the establishment only strengthens her narrative. Hanson's supporters see someone willing to say the unsayable, triggering outrage from the very institutions they distrust anyway. The Coalition should be terrified by One Nation's rise - particularly in the knowledge that after the election their preferences may flow to One Nation, rather than the other way around What critics regard as disqualifying, her base interprets as authenticity.  But what about beyond her expanded base? Because the One Nation primary vote is far bigger than that these days. Critics consoling themselves that Hanson's vote is capped somewhere between 20-30 per cent are missing the point.  In a fragmented system, that's real power. Certainly in the Senate, but also in the House, depending on how the seats distribution plays out. At the 2025 election, the Coalition commanded a 31.8 per cent primary vote to One Nation's 6.4 per cent. That dominance has inverted. Liberal and National MPs blindly assume One Nation preferences will eventually rescue them, but the data suggests otherwise.  Preferences only rescue a candidate who survives long enough during the distribution to receive them. If One Nation begins the count on 30 per cent and the Coalition on 19, Coalition candidates could finish third in many electorates.  If that happens, the Coalition will be distributing preferences to One Nation, not the other way around. Labor can hardly take comfort from a 30 per cent primary vote  Chasing Hanson to the right validates her platform and alienates metropolitan one time moderate Liberal voters.  Attacking her antagonises the very voters the Coalition desperately needs to recover. Waiting for her to self-destruct has merely allowed One Nation to replace the Coalition as the country's largest non-Labor political force. While Labor shouldn't take comfort from a 30 per cent primary vote, its position is insulated by Greens preferences and the fracturing of the right. The major parties keep waiting for Australians to look at Pauline Hanson and recoil in horror.  Instead One Nation is level pegging with the Labor Party and blitzing the Coalition, in spite of Hanson's commentary. That's how sick and tired millions of Australians are with Albo, Angus Taylor, and their conga-line of major party hangers on.