Oxford scientists debunk claims '2,700 people died in heatwaves' - 'Where are these heat deaths?'

Claims 2,700 people lost their lives due to the summer's heatwaves are not reflected by official data, scientists have said.

An Imperial College study, published today, suggests extreme heat led to 440 deaths a day during June peak, with global warming ramping up temperatures.

The Imperial analysis also states more than 40 per cent of the people affected would not have died without the 1.4C of human-caused global heating to date.

However, the study was based on modelling estimates, rather than actual deaths, and is not reflected in real-world data

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Professor Carl Heneghan and Dr Tom Jefferson from the University of Oxford’s Centre of Evidence Based Medicine say official death figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) show no clear spike against the previous decade during the weeks covering the May and June heatwaves.

The pair are now calling on the ONS to publish more transparent death data so the public and researchers can judge the evidence for themselves.

Writing for their 'Trust the Evidence' Substack, the Oxford academics stress they are not arguing heat does not increase the risk of death in vulnerable people. Instead, they say there is an important distinction between deaths estimated by statistical models and deaths that can be shown in official mortality data.

And they point out that heat-related deaths themselves are often linked to a failure of care, such as dehydration among the elderly or inadequate cooling systems, which can raise the risk of heart attacks.

The estimate of around 2,700 deaths was produced by researchers using models that combine temperature records with evidence on the relationship between heat and death.

The models estimate how many people would probably not have died had temperatures remained lower, taking account of factors including age, geography and long-term mortality trends.

But Prof Heneghan and Dr Jefferson argue those estimates should be tested against actual death figures.

Prof Heneghan said: "Looking at the latest weekly ONS figures, there is the expected week-to-week variation, but no dramatic spike that leaps off the page. The weeks covering the heatwaves sit comfortably within the range seen in recent years."

He added: "Modelling tells us nothing. Models explore possibilities; surveillance tells us what happened. When the two disagree, our instinct should be to investigate the data rather than simply trust the model."

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The academics acknowledge that weekly registered deaths are an imperfect measure because they are recorded by the date of registration, not the date of death. Weekends, bank holidays, coroners' investigations and administrative delays can all blur the impact of a short-lived event such as a heatwave.

But they argue: "If thousands of additional deaths truly occurred, one might still expect at least some discernible signal in all-cause mortality."

The pair are now urging the ONS to publish a near real-time dashboard showing deaths by the date of death and broken down by age, region and cause.

"Until we have this, we have a Government and health service flying in the dark. We need to do a better job of understanding the drivers of excess deaths at any time of the year, including the winter when we see deaths linked to cold. The new Prime Minister must make understanding the cause of death a priority."

They say this detailed data would allow the public, researchers and policymakers to compare observed death figures directly with estimates of heat-related deaths, influenza and other public health threats.

Until that happens, they write, "claims of thousands of invisible deaths should be treated as estimates awaiting confirmation, not as established fact."

Imperial College researcher Dr Clair Barnes, who led the Imperial analysis, said the modelled figures should act as a climate change warning.

She said: "These are big numbers and we don’t want to see this many people dying. We’ve reached the point where the heat is so extreme that we can’t help but acknowledge the impacts it has."

Met Office researcher, Dr Mark McCarthy, who was part of Imperial College analysis team, said 2026 had been "exceptional for the two early-season heatwaves in May and June - these smashed records".

A high of 35.1C was recorded in west London during the May heatwave and three consecutive days of record-breaking June temperatures ended with a recording of above 37C in East Anglia.

Climate change had added 3C to 4C, the researchers said.

Dr McCarthy said: "We know that human-induced climate change is making heatwaves more frequent and more intense, both globally and here in the UK. Extreme high temperatures in the UK are also warming at a much faster rate than the average temperature."

Imperial College London’s mathematical models have been highly influential and have been used to shape Government responses to past major crises, including the Covid-19 pandemic and the foot-and-mouth outbreak.

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