One Nation’s rise puts the next election in ‘unknown territory’ – but does Pauline Hanson really have a path to government?
•One Nation has significantly increased its support, rising from 6% to top positions in recent polls.
•The party faces challenges in urban seats and unpredictable preference flows.
•This shift complicates predictions for the upcoming Australian election.
المصدر: The Guardian World | Source: The Guardian WorldData shows the rightwing party faces an obstacle in the form of urban seats – and the effect of preference flows is harder to predict
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One Nation’s spectacular rise from a distant 6% of the vote in the last election to first or second in some recent polls has upended Australian politics. It has also made it a lot harder to predict what exactly will happen at the next election.
Traditionally, pollsters and election experts would look at how preferences flowed in previous elections when estimating two-party preferred numbers, or translating polling into seat projections. This was fairly predictable when almost every seat would come down to a contest between Labor and the Coalition.
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→One Nation has significantly increased its support, rising from 6% to top positions in recent polls.
→The party faces challenges in urban seats and unpredictable preference flows.
ملاحظة تحريرية | Editorial Note: نُشر هذا المقال في الأصل بواسطة The Guardian World. خبر (Khabr) هي منصة إعلامية أردنية مرخّصة تعمل بالذكاء الاصطناعي. نضيف قيمة تحريرية من خلال: تحليل ذكي للأخبار، ملخصات تلقائية، رواية صوتية بالذكاء الاصطناعي، ترجمة متعددة اللغات، وتدقيق الحقائق. هدفنا جعل الأخبار أكثر وضوحاً وسهولةً للقارئ العربي.
This article was originally published by The Guardian World. Khabr is a licensed Jordanian AI-powered news platform (Registration #82086). We add editorial value through: AI-powered news analysis, automated summaries, AI audio narration, multi-language translation (Arabic, English, French, Turkish), and AI fact-checking. Our mission is to make news more accessible and understandable for Arabic-speaking audiences worldwide.
