One Nation regains lead over Labor in surprise new poll - but it's not all bad news for Albo

By ASHLEY NICKEL, NEWS REPORTER, AUSTRALIA Published: 14:31, 2 August 2026 | Updated: 14:34, 2 August 2026 One Nation has once again pulled clear of Anthony Albanese's Labor government as Australia's preferred party after a chaotic month in the polls. Support for Pauline Hanson's party temporarily wavered following her 'monoculture' speech at the National Press Club in June, meetings with controversial right-wing figures in the United Kingdom, and MP Barnaby Joyce making headlines for yelling at his dog off-camera during a trainwreck ABC interview. However, a new poll for The Australian Financial Review by Redbridge Group and Accent Research saw One Nation's primary vote rise by two points after 1,001 voters were surveyed last week. One Nation recorded 31 per cent of the primary vote, two points ahead of Labor, which suffered a one-point drop since the last poll a month ago. The result marked the fourth time in as many months that the two parties have traded places at the top. One Nation first defeated Labor in the AFR poll in May, after Labor broke key election promises by making major changes to the capital gains tax discount and negative gearing in the Federal Budget. The survey also marked a minor victory for the Coalition with primary support for the Liberals-Nationals up four points to 22 per cent, its best result since March. The Greens' primary vote plummeted four points to 10 per cent. Pauline Hanson's (above) One Nation has overtaken Labor as the most popular party, a new poll found One Nation and Anthony Albanese's  Labor Party have battled for the top position in the polls since May Albanese remains Australia's preferred prime minister with 32 per cent of the vote, well ahead of Hanson (24 per cent) and Coalition leader Angus Taylor (15 per cent).  Redbridge director Tony Barry said the results closely matched those seen immediately after the Federal Budget.  'After losing some vote share following Pauline Hanson's speech to the National Press Club, One Nation's support has returned to its previous high level, indicating that for their base, grievance mobilises more reliably than policy,' he said. 'Labor continues to lose positioning on issues performance measures, which complicates their pathway back to their election primary vote of 34.5 per cent. 'Voters will only forgive you for breaking a promise if you are eventually proven right.' On a two-party preferred vote, Labor enjoys a slight 53-47 lead over One Nation. However, Labor trails the Coalition 48-52 on the same vote. But while Accent Research director Shaun Ratcliff said the result was 'striking', it was not a direct indication that the Coalition would win the next election in 2028.  Primary support for the Coalition, led by Opposition Leader Angus Taylor (above), improved four points to 22 per cent 'It is a single-wave result and should not be interpreted as an election forecast, and does not necessarily mean that the Coalition would win an election held now,' he said. Labor was Australia's preferred party regarding the top three pressing  issues - cost of living, housing affordability and healthcare. The Coalition was voters' pick for economic management, tax reform, and crime and public safety. One Nation took the lead, by a large margin, for immigration.  Albanese's net personal rating - calculated by subtracting unfavourable rating from favourable rating - fell a point to minus 19. Taylor's rating improved three points to minus 6 while Hanson's remained steady at minus 10.