One in four heart disease deaths could be linked to eating ultra-processed crisps, biscuits and ready meals

By SHAUN WOOLLER, EXECUTIVE HEALTH EDITOR Published: 23:01, 15 July 2026 | Updated: 23:01, 15 July 2026 Around one in four cases of heart disease and associated deaths could be linked to eating ultra-processed crisps, biscuits and ready meals, a study suggests. Previous research has shown UPFs are linked to poor health but there is debate over the scale of the effect and the extent to which processing itself is to blame compared with the fact many UPFs can cause health problems as they are high in fat, sugar and salt. Now new research published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine and presented at the at the International Congress on Obesity in Mexico suggests deaths will fall significantly if people cut their intake of UPFs. Examples of UPFs include ice cream, processed meats, crisps, mass-produced bread, some breakfast cereals, biscuits, many ready meals and fizzy drinks. They also tend to include additives and ingredients that are not used when people cook from scratch, such as preservatives, emulsifiers and artificial colours and flavours. In the UK, 56 per cent of calories on average come from UPFs, rising to 68 per cent in teenagers. These figures are far higher than in comparable European countries such as France and Italy. In the new study, experts from the University of Montreal, Canada, used Canadian patient data to look at cardiovascular disease – conditions that affect the heart and blood vessels, cases of heart attack and stroke, plus deaths and disability related to cardiovascular disease. Examples of UPFs include ice cream, processed meats, crisps, mass-produced bread, some breakfast cereals, biscuits, many ready meals and fizzy drinks. Analysis showed between 23 per cent and 38 per cent of all cardiovascular disease events, such as heart attacks and strokes, in 2019 were attributable to UPF intake. This equates to 58,200 to 96,000 new cases of cardiovascular disease plus 10,600 to 17,400 cardiovascular disease-related deaths, plus disability for thousands of patients. Reducing UPF consumption by 20 per cent to 50 per cent may have prevented 16,800 to 45,900 new cases of cardiovascular disease, plus 3,100 to 8,300 cardiovascular disease-related deaths, the experts said. They concluded: 'These findings reinforce the need for clinical and public health interventions aimed at reducing UPF intake as a key component of cardiovascular disease prevention. 'To drive meaningful change in dietary patterns, comprehensive structural measures are essential. 'These include regulations on food taxes, front-of-package labelling, marketing restrictions and reformulation targets aimed at improving food quality.' Maeva May, director of policy for the Stroke Association said: 'Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability, and this research is an important reminder that the food environment around us can influence people's risk. 'It adds to growing evidence that diets high in ultra-processed foods may increase the risk of cardiovascular disease, including stroke. Analysis showed between 23 per cent and 38 per cent of all cardiovascular disease events, such as heart attacks and strokes, in 2019 were attributable to UPF intake. 'We still need to understand more about the role of processing itself, but we already know that too much salt, sugar and saturated fat can raise blood pressure and other major risk factors for stroke. 'People should not be blamed for choices shaped by price, availability and relentless marketing. 'Government and industry must do more to make healthier food affordable, accessible and easier to choose, so fewer people and families have to live with the impact of stroke.' However, Professor Alberto Fiore, from Abertay University in Dundee, said the study had limitations. He cautioned: 'This is a modelling study, not a clinical trial — it does not measure what actually happened to people who ate more or fewer ultra-processed foods. 'It takes a 2015 dietary snapshot, applies a risk multiplier borrowed from studies in France, Italy and the US, and projects how many CVD events might be attributable to UPF consumption. 'The authors' own sensitivity analysis reduces the headline figure of 96,000 avoidable CVD cases by nearly 40% depending on which risk estimate is used — that is a very wide uncertainty range for a number being put in front of the public. 'But the deeper problem is one this study cannot resolve: are we actually measuring the effect of industrial processing, or are we simply measuring the well-known harms of a poor diet that happens to come in a packet? 'The paper itself tells us the answer. It acknowledges that 'ultra-processed dietary patterns' are characterised by excess free sugars, saturated fats, and sodium, and low fibre — and it separately estimates that targeting free sugars and sodium alone could prevent thousands of CVD deaths per year in Canada. 'If standard nutritional harms already explain the observed risk, then the concept of 'ultra-processing' is doing no independent scientific work whatsoever.' He said when the CVD findings are broken down by food subtype, they are 'overwhelmingly driven by sugar-sweetened beverages and processed meat products. 'These are foods whose harmfulness has been established for decades on purely nutritional grounds — high free sugar, high saturated fat, high sodium, low fibre — with no need to invoke the concept of industrial processing at all.'