OECD predicts spate of recessions globally if Iran conflict drags into 2027

Policy forum lays out ‘prolonged disruption’ scenario in which world’s GDP falls to 2.1% this year from 3.4% in 2025

• Rural UK ‘particularly at risk’ of diesel shortages

If the Middle East conflict drags on into next year it would hit global growth hard, driving some economies into recession and causing energy shortages, according to forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

In its latest Economic Outlook, the Paris-based club of industrialised countries lays out a “prolonged disruption” scenario, in which there is no agreement between the US and Iran until 2027.