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Osmanlı İmparatorluğu'nun çöküş sürecinde nüfus yoğunluğunun Batılı güçlerin çok gerisinde kaldığına dikkati çekerek demografik kırılganlığın siyasi çöküşün en kritik hazırlayıcılarından biri olduğunu vurguluyor.Halil İbrahim Medet20 Nisan 2026•Güncelleme: 20 Nisan 2026Fotoğraflar: Arif Hüdaverdi Yaman / AAİstanbulUzmanlar, Osmanlı İmparatorluğu'nun çöküş sürecinde nüfus yoğunluğunun Batılı güçlerin çok gerisinde kaldığına dikkati çekerek, düşük iş gücü, sınırlı vergi kapasitesi ve lojistik yetersizliklerin birleştiği bu demografik kırılganlığın siyasi çöküşün en kritik hazırlayıcılarından biri olduğunu vurguluyor. Milli Savunma Üniversitesi Müşterek Harp Enstitüsü Dr. Öğretim Üyesi Hayati Ünlü, AA muhabirine, tarihte demografinin devletlerin yükseliş ve çöküşündeki rolünü değerlendirdi. Ünlü, nüfusun bir devletin yükselişi ve çöküşündeki en önemli faktörler arasında yer aldığını vurgulayarak, "Nüfus, sayının ötesinde doğru yönetilmediğinde bir yük, doğru yönetildiğinde ise tarihin yönünü değiştiren en güçlü araçtır." dedi. Demografinin bir devletin ulusal gücünün çarpanı olduğunu ve iş gücü, askeri kapasite ile yenilikçi, dinamik nüfus için gerekli olduğunu kaydeden Ünlü, Osmanlı’daki demografik erime nedeniyle kurumsal reformlar için yeterli insan kaynağı sağlanamadığını ve bunun siyasi çöküşün öncülü olduğunu anımsattı. Ünlü, nüfus artışı kadar nüfusun niteliğinin de demografi yönetiminde belirleyici olduğunun altını çizerek, “Modern devletler için göç hem fırsat hem de risktir. Bugün ‘nitelikli iş gücü göçü’ (beyin göçü), toprak kaybından daha kritik bir demografik tehdittir. Eğitim, sağlık ve şehirleşme kalitesi olmadan yüksek doğum oranları sadece yoksulluğu artırır. Bugün birçok gelişmekte olan ülke aynı tuzağın içinde. Doğum oranları düşüyor ama eğitim ve sanayi dönüşümü tamamlanmıyor.” diye konuştu. Osmanlı İmparatorluğu'nun 19. yüzyılda artan nüfusunun Balkanlar'dan gelen göçe dayandığını ve bu nedenle kırılgan bir yapı arz ettiğini anımsatan Ünlü, Batı Avrupa’nın ise 19. yüzyılda ölüm oranlarındaki hızlı düşüş ve doğum oranlarındaki artışla lineer nüfus artışı ve bir nüfus patlaması yaşadığını bildirdi. Ünlü, 19. yüzyılda Batı’da artan nüfusun sanayiye iş gücü sağladığını ve kıtalararası emperyal yayılmacılığın aracına dönüştüğüne değinerek, "1900’ler civarında Londra 6 milyon 500 bin, Paris yaklaşık 3 milyon, Berlin 2 milyon nüfusa sahipken, Osmanlı’nın en büyük kenti olan İstanbul’un nüfusu 1 milyona yakın seyrediyordu." bilgisini verdi. Osmanlı ile Batılı güçler arasında yalnızca büyük şehir nüfusu değil, toplam nüfus açısından da ciddi bir fark oluştuğuna işaret eden Ünlü, İngiltere’nin (sömürgeler hariç) 45 milyon, Almanya'nın 65 milyon, Osmanlı'nın ise devasa yüzölçümüne rağmen 18-19 milyon nüfusa sahip olduğunu söyledi. Ünlü, Batı Avrupa’da kilometrekareye 100 kişi, Anadolu’da 15-20 kişi düştüğünü belirterek, şunları söyledi: "Bu rakamlar büyük bir uçurumu gösteriyor. Düşük nüfus yoğunluğu, lojistik, savunma, vergi toplama ve altyapı yatırımları açısından ciddi bir handikaptı. Demir yolu inşa etmek bile nüfus azlığı nedeniyle ekonomik olarak karsız kalıyordu. Osmanlı, alanı büyük ama insanı az bir imparatorluk olarak devlet kapasitesinin alt eşiğinde geziniyordu." Osmanlı’nın düşük nüfus yoğunluğu ve sınırlı iş gücüne sahip olmasının çöküşünde en az askeri yenilgiler kadar kritik rol oynadığını anlatan Ünlü, iş gücü maliyetlerinin yüksek, üretimin ise düşük kaldığını ve sanayinin yeterli iş gücü ile iç pazarın olmaması nedeniyle gelişemediğini ifade etti. Ünlü, Osmanlı için "büyük alan, az nüfus paradoksu" nedeniyle sürekli bir güvenlik açığı bulunduğunu ve demografinin devlet kapasitesinin en temel sınırlayıcısına dönüştüğünü belirterek, "Vergi toplayacak, toprak işleyecek, askerlik yapacak ve yenilik üretecek insan sayısı kritik eşiğin altında kalmıştı." ifadelerini kullandı. Haberi PaylaşAnadolu Ajansı web sitesinde, AA Haber Akış Sistemi (HAS) üzerinden abonelere sunulan haberler, özetlenerek yayımlanmaktadır.Abonelik için lütfen iletişime geçiniz.