NHL 2025-26 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings

AtlanticBruinsCanadiensLightningMaple LeafsPanthersRed WingsSabresSenatorsMetropolitanBlue JacketsCapitalsDevilsFlyersHurricanesIslandersPenguinsRangersCentralAvalancheBlackhawksBluesJetsMammothPredatorsStarsWildPacificCanucksDucksFlamesGolden KnightsKingsKrakenOilersSharksScores & ScheduleStandingsPodcastsFantasyNHL OddsNHL PicksLatest NHL mock draftUFA big boardPlayoff bracketRed Light NewsletterNHL 2025-26 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings Share article428Welcome to our 2025-26 NHL projections where you will find each team’s projected point total, probability of advancing to and through the playoffs, and chances of winning the Stanley Cup. The projections are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the season which factors in each team’s projected strength, current health and strength of schedule. All projections are rounded to the nearest whole number. You can read more about the model at the bottom of the page. The projections will be updated daily. Certain graphics on this page may be affected by ad-blocking software. If portions of the page appear blank and an ad blocker is enabled, please disable the ad blocker and refresh the page to ensure full access to the content. Starting at the player level, we create a projected Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating for each player — a linear weight model that combines each player’s production and play-driving ability using various box score and on-ice metrics. That projection is based on the player’s performance in each metric over the last three seasons (five for goalies), weighted for recency where more recent seasons carry more significance and regressed to the mean. That rating is then adjusted for the contextual usage of who they play with and against on average. From there, an Offensive and Defensive Rating is created for each team based on the combined ratings from the players on their roster.\nThose ratings create an estimate of how many goals each team is expected to score and allow in a game against an average opponent at a neutral site. We then assign a probability of how likely a team is to win a given game by factoring for opponent strength, venue and rest. Taking into account each team’s current record, expected health and remaining schedule, we use these game-by-game projections to simulate the rest of the season (including the playoffs) 50,000 times using the Monte Carlo method."},{"location":"Methodology cont."},{"location":"Credits","text":"By Ryan Best, David Haye, Dom Luszczyszyn and Laura Pelton"},{"location":"Odds over time graf","text":"Below you’ll find each team’s probability of {{ metric }} throughout the season based on 50,000 simulations, by {{ group }}."},{"location":"Odds over time charts","text":"make_playoffs"}],"Metro":[{"last_updated":"2025-10-06 22:18:23","CAR":"0.8703","CBJ":"0.3276","NJ":"0.7183","NYI":"0.2714","NYR":"0.6167","PHI":"0.1984","PIT":"0.1077","WSH":"0.6298"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-08 9:25:33","CAR":"0.8785","CBJ":"0.3259","NJ":"0.7161","NYI":"0.2685","NYR":"0.5665","PHI":"0.202","PIT":"0.1215","WSH":"0.6379"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-09 10:15:58","CAR":"0.8306","CBJ":"0.3501","NJ":"0.698","NYI":"0.2979","NYR":"0.5715","PHI":"0.2363","PIT":"0.1716","WSH":"0.5811"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-10 9:36:07","CAR":"0.8943","CBJ":"0.3006","NJ":"0.7033","NYI":"0.2505","NYR":"0.6123","PHI":"0.1778","PIT":"0.1423","WSH":"0.5926"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-12 9:15:30","CAR":"0.9043","CBJ":"0.3072","NJ":"0.7623","NYI":"0.17","NYR":"0.6304","PHI":"0.1627","PIT":"0.1133","WSH":"0.6369"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-13 10:03:00","CAR":"0.909","CBJ":"0.3055","NJ":"0.7574","NYI":"0.1703","NYR":"0.5914","PHI":"0.1626","PIT":"0.116","WSH":"0.6666"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-14 9:39:46","CAR":"0.9136","CBJ":"0.317","NJ":"0.7727","NYI":"0.1426","NYR":"0.6228","PHI":"0.1881","PIT":"0.1459","WSH":"0.6453"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-15 9:35:33","CAR":"0.9278","CBJ":"0.305","NJ":"0.7687","NYI":"0.158","NYR":"0.6092","PHI":"0.1947","PIT":"0.0967","WSH":"0.7156"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-16 0:46:16","CAR":"0.9304","CBJ":"0.3069","NJ":"0.7709","NYI":"0.1576","NYR":"0.61","PHI":"0.1944","PIT":"0.1025","WSH":"0.7115"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-17 9:35:35","CAR":"0.9387","CBJ":"0.2803","NJ":"0.809","NYI":"0.1792","NYR":"0.634","PHI":"0.1538","PIT":"0.1011","WSH":"0.714"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-18 10:03:03","CAR":"0.9358","CBJ":"0.2806","NJ":"0.8053","NYI":"0.1775","NYR":"0.6275","PHI":"0.1533","PIT":"0.1014","WSH":"0.7416"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-19 9:29:41","CAR":"0.937","CBJ":"0.3149","NJ":"0.8229","NYI":"0.2421","NYR":"0.6442","PHI":"0.1616","PIT":"0.0817","WSH":"0.7816"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-20 9:38:55","CAR":"0.9374","CBJ":"0.3168","NJ":"0.8262","NYI":"0.2363","NYR":"0.6453","PHI":"0.1604","PIT":"0.084","WSH":"0.7525"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-21 7:51:50","CAR":"0.9297","CBJ":"0.3194","NJ":"0.83","NYI":"0.2432","NYR":"0.6094","PHI":"0.1767","PIT":"0.0844","WSH":"0.7554"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-22 9:33:40","CAR":"0.9325","CBJ":"0.346","NJ":"0.8466","NYI":"0.2304","NYR":"0.5758","PHI":"0.1488","PIT":"0.1025","WSH":"0.7751"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-23 0:26:25","CAR":"0.9323","CBJ":"0.3391","NJ":"0.8625","NYI":"0.2272","NYR":"0.5645","PHI":"0.1476","PIT":"0.101","WSH":"0.7724"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-24 9:55:12","CAR":"0.9494","CBJ":"0.3434","NJ":"0.8664","NYI":"0.2628","NYR":"0.5311","PHI":"0.1152","PIT":"0.1326","WSH":"0.7763"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-25 0:18:52","CAR":"0.9526","CBJ":"0.3178","NJ":"0.8749","NYI":"0.2579","NYR":"0.5364","PHI":"0.1187","PIT":"0.1298","WSH":"0.8031"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-26 9:23:15","CAR":"0.94","CBJ":"0.3045","NJ":"0.8801","NYI":"0.2564","NYR":"0.5025","PHI":"0.1326","PIT":"0.1249","WSH":"0.7306"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-27 9:33:15","CAR":"0.9397","CBJ":"0.3504","NJ":"0.8936","NYI":"0.2827","NYR":"0.4135","PHI":"0.1277","PIT":"0.1475","WSH":"0.7342"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-28 1:50:53","CAR":"0.9375","CBJ":"0.3417","NJ":"0.8883","NYI":"0.2786","NYR":"0.4137","PHI":"0.1293","PIT":"0.1677","WSH":"0.7359"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-29 8:31:48","CAR":"0.908","CBJ":"0.3798","NJ":"0.8782","NYI":"0.2267","NYR":"0.4936","PHI":"0.1423","PIT":"0.1659","WSH":"0.693"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-30 0:01:01","CAR":"0.9076","CBJ":"0.4173","NJ":"0.8786","NYI":"0.2261","NYR":"0.4989","PHI":"0.1379","PIT":"0.1676","WSH":"0.6898"},{"last_updated":"2025-10-31 8:37:58","CAR":"0.9173","CBJ":"0.3876","NJ":"0.8224","NYI":"0.1836","NYR":"0.5496","PHI":"0.1316","PIT":"0.2012","WSH":"0.6852"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-01 8:34:16","CAR":"0.923","CBJ":"0.3866","NJ":"0.8234","NYI":"0.2163","NYR":"0.557","PHI":"0.1392","PIT":"0.2033","WSH":"0.6427"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-02 8:41:49","CAR":"0.8845","CBJ":"0.4025","NJ":"0.8461","NYI":"0.1992","NYR":"0.6103","PHI":"0.1005","PIT":"0.1592","WSH":"0.6324"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-03 0:11:04","CAR":"0.8904","CBJ":"0.3663","NJ":"0.8249","NYI":"0.2212","NYR":"0.6152","PHI":"0.0879","PIT":"0.1557","WSH":"0.6401"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-04 9:55:07","CAR":"0.8947","CBJ":"0.3631","NJ":"0.7985","NYI":"0.2161","NYR":"0.6159","PHI":"0.0814","PIT":"0.1847","WSH":"0.6422"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-05 8:39:52","CAR":"0.9222","CBJ":"0.3654","NJ":"0.8378","NYI":"0.2088","NYR":"0.5643","PHI":"0.177","PIT":"0.2055","WSH":"0.6254"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-06 9:13:24","CAR":"0.9174","CBJ":"0.3199","NJ":"0.8377","NYI":"0.2181","NYR":"0.5555","PHI":"0.1717","PIT":"0.2057","WSH":"0.6578"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-07 9:35:05","CAR":"0.9294","CBJ":"0.2802","NJ":"0.8494","NYI":"0.2072","NYR":"0.5553","PHI":"0.1824","PIT":"0.2501","WSH":"0.6422"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-08 8:43:06","CAR":"0.9379","CBJ":"0.3128","NJ":"0.8316","NYI":"0.1193","NYR":"0.6389","PHI":"0.2269","PIT":"0.2334","WSH":"0.6174"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-09 9:08:22","CAR":"0.9523","CBJ":"0.3212","NJ":"0.849","NYI":"0.1544","NYR":"0.5303","PHI":"0.2396","PIT":"0.2943","WSH":"0.6145"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-10 9:58:16","CAR":"0.9725","CBJ":"0.3332","NJ":"0.8563","NYI":"0.1566","NYR":"0.5345","PHI":"0.2467","PIT":"0.2676","WSH":"0.5927"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-11 1:06:29","CAR":"0.9719","CBJ":"0.3268","NJ":"0.828","NYI":"0.1815","NYR":"0.565","PHI":"0.2424","PIT":"0.2612","WSH":"0.5725"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-12 9:24:26","CAR":"0.9542","CBJ":"0.4135","NJ":"0.8373","NYI":"0.1752","NYR":"0.5269","PHI":"0.2517","PIT":"0.3013","WSH":"0.6331"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-13 9:52:38","CAR":"0.9502","CBJ":"0.422","NJ":"0.8489","NYI":"0.1713","NYR":"0.5662","PHI":"0.2537","PIT":"0.3025","WSH":"0.6288"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-14 9:30:15","CAR":"0.9484","CBJ":"0.4836","NJ":"0.8508","NYI":"0.2343","NYR":"0.5843","PHI":"0.2404","PIT":"0.3188","WSH":"0.5761"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-15 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9:19:58","CAR":"0.9684","CBJ":"0.5333","NJ":"0.8489","NYI":"0.3465","NYR":"0.3834","PHI":"0.1728","PIT":"0.3343","WSH":"0.7368"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-22 9:55:34","CAR":"0.978","CBJ":"0.5345","NJ":"0.8402","NYI":"0.3416","NYR":"0.3902","PHI":"0.1802","PIT":"0.2925","WSH":"0.7347"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-23 9:33:06","CAR":"0.98","CBJ":"0.5083","NJ":"0.7597","NYI":"0.3039","NYR":"0.3579","PHI":"0.2291","PIT":"0.2704","WSH":"0.743"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-24 9:18:05","CAR":"0.9702","CBJ":"0.5003","NJ":"0.7578","NYI":"0.3276","NYR":"0.3584","PHI":"0.2266","PIT":"0.2703","WSH":"0.7451"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-25 9:34:32","CAR":"0.9672","CBJ":"0.4602","NJ":"0.776","NYI":"0.3156","NYR":"0.3902","PHI":"0.1946","PIT":"0.2693","WSH":"0.7894"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-26 0:02:07","CAR":"0.9693","CBJ":"0.4597","NJ":"0.775","NYI":"0.3217","NYR":"0.3914","PHI":"0.1901","PIT":"0.2711","WSH":"0.7937"},{"last_updated":"2025-11-27 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9:24:03","CAR":"0.9705","CBJ":"0.4927","NJ":"0.7315","NYI":"0.2376","NYR":"0.4034","PHI":"0.2052","PIT":"0.3022","WSH":"0.9223"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-05 9:17:40","CAR":"0.952","CBJ":"0.4996","NJ":"0.6437","NYI":"0.3009","NYR":"0.4886","PHI":"0.2196","PIT":"0.3438","WSH":"0.9306"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-06 9:09:06","CAR":"0.9539","CBJ":"0.5104","NJ":"0.5886","NYI":"0.3092","NYR":"0.4987","PHI":"0.2242","PIT":"0.3485","WSH":"0.9287"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-07 11:00:44","CAR":"0.9617","CBJ":"0.5311","NJ":"0.4972","NYI":"0.3609","NYR":"0.4932","PHI":"0.2107","PIT":"0.3371","WSH":"0.9354"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-08 9:44:16","CAR":"0.9413","CBJ":"0.4742","NJ":"0.5112","NYI":"0.3241","NYR":"0.5277","PHI":"0.2102","PIT":"0.385","WSH":"0.949"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-09 9:33:29","CAR":"0.934","CBJ":"0.4713","NJ":"0.5207","NYI":"0.3187","NYR":"0.5348","PHI":"0.2027","PIT":"0.377","WSH":"0.9468"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-10 10:06:32","CAR":"0.945","CBJ":"0.366","NJ":"0.5321","NYI":"0.3943","NYR":"0.5218","PHI":"0.2451","PIT":"0.4568","WSH":"0.9447"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-11 10:46:14","CAR":"0.9458","CBJ":"0.3694","NJ":"0.5394","NYI":"0.3928","NYR":"0.4569","PHI":"0.253","PIT":"0.4568","WSH":"0.9453"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-12 8:31:42","CAR":"0.9602","CBJ":"0.2993","NJ":"0.5038","NYI":"0.4876","NYR":"0.4428","PHI":"0.2479","PIT":"0.3863","WSH":"0.9415"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-13 0:52:25","CAR":"0.9625","CBJ":"0.2927","NJ":"0.5468","NYI":"0.4907","NYR":"0.4406","PHI":"0.2465","PIT":"0.3724","WSH":"0.9424"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-14 9:55:11","CAR":"0.9652","CBJ":"0.2423","NJ":"0.5839","NYI":"0.526","NYR":"0.5048","PHI":"0.2573","PIT":"0.3528","WSH":"0.9028"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-15 9:56:04","CAR":"0.9708","CBJ":"0.2488","NJ":"0.5254","NYI":"0.527","NYR":"0.5059","PHI":"0.2745","PIT":"0.3459","WSH":"0.9001"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-16 9:25:24","CAR":"0.9688","CBJ":"0.2487","NJ":"0.5343","NYI":"0.5227","NYR":"0.4474","PHI":"0.2805","PIT":"0.3424","WSH":"0.9029"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-17 9:46:46","CAR":"0.9728","CBJ":"0.2777","NJ":"0.5634","NYI":"0.4693","NYR":"0.3732","PHI":"0.3322","PIT":"0.2937","WSH":"0.87"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-18 9:34:57","CAR":"0.9779","CBJ":"0.2718","NJ":"0.5992","NYI":"0.4699","NYR":"0.3694","PHI":"0.3316","PIT":"0.2914","WSH":"0.8675"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-19 9:06:05","CAR":"0.9805","CBJ":"0.2309","NJ":"0.6672","NYI":"0.488","NYR":"0.4426","PHI":"0.1948","PIT":"0.2339","WSH":"0.9134"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-20 9:57:46","CAR":"0.9807","CBJ":"0.2273","NJ":"0.7081","NYI":"0.4331","NYR":"0.4466","PHI":"0.1931","PIT":"0.2334","WSH":"0.9118"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-21 9:24:20","CAR":"0.9738","CBJ":"0.2176","NJ":"0.7327","NYI":"0.393","NYR":"0.4772","PHI":"0.231","PIT":"0.1951","WSH":"0.8439"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-22 9:39:03","CAR":"0.9718","CBJ":"0.2209","NJ":"0.7063","NYI":"0.3962","NYR":"0.4038","PHI":"0.2331","PIT":"0.2525","WSH":"0.8474"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-23 8:57:05","CAR":"0.9717","CBJ":"0.2509","NJ":"0.6981","NYI":"0.39","NYR":"0.4037","PHI":"0.2475","PIT":"0.2495","WSH":"0.8469"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-24 10:10:56","CAR":"0.949","CBJ":"0.2453","NJ":"0.6171","NYI":"0.359","NYR":"0.4795","PHI":"0.3163","PIT":"0.206","WSH":"0.7891"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-28 9:56:40","CAR":"0.9671","CBJ":"0.2467","NJ":"0.5895","NYI":"0.3988","NYR":"0.4151","PHI":"0.33","PIT":"0.2112","WSH":"0.8514"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-29 9:16:05","CAR":"0.9648","CBJ":"0.2711","NJ":"0.593","NYI":"0.3571","NYR":"0.4233","PHI":"0.2762","PIT":"0.2427","WSH":"0.8466"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-30 9:38:46","CAR":"0.9767","CBJ":"0.3869","NJ":"0.5808","NYI":"0.3084","NYR":"0.4013","PHI":"0.3045","PIT":"0.2174","WSH":"0.7956"},{"last_updated":"2025-12-31 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