NBA Draft Lottery odds: Wizards, Pacers, Nets have best chance at No. 1 pick

Atlantic76ersCelticsKnicksNetsRaptorsCentralBucksBullsCavaliersPacersPistonsSoutheastHawksHeatHornetsMagicWizardsSouthwestGrizzliesMavericksPelicansRocketsSpursNorthwestJazzNuggetsThunderTimberwolvesTrail BlazersPacificClippersKingsLakersSunsWarriorsScores & ScheduleStandingsThe Bounce NewsletterNBA DraftPodcastsFantasyNBA OddsNBA PicksDifferent Look For Postseason BroadcastsDraft Lottery OddsHot Seat WatchInside NBA Sneaker CultureNBA Season The Wizards finished the regular season with the league's worst record. Scott Taetsch / Getty Images Share full articleThe 2025-26 season gave us one of the great tanking campaigns in NBA history. It was so bad that commissioner Adam Silver vowed to fix tanking and is seeking a solution to curb it. Now, after six months, 82 regular-season games and fines for a handful of teams, the work is done. The standings are set, and franchises have nothing to do but make their sacrifices to the ping-pong-ball and lottery gods ahead of what is heralded as a loaded draft class. BYU wing AJ Dybantsa, Kansas guard Darryn Peterson and Duke forward Cameron Boozer are atop a class of prospects that has teams hoping for a top pick. That will make next month’s NBA Draft Lottery one of the highest-stakes lotteries in recent history. Not only is there a rush for the top players, but one team may also lose its first-round pick if the lottery doesn’t go its way. Who has the best odds, and what are they? That’s easy to explain. • The Washington Wizards finished with the worst record in the league (17-65), a capstone to a season in which they posted one of the worst point differentials in NBA history. • The Indiana Pacers (19-63) and Brooklyn Nets (20-62) finished with the second- and third-worst records. Those three teams will each have a 14-percent chance to land the No. 1 pick at the May 10 lottery. The Pacers have a lot riding on the drawing. The ping-pong balls will determine the order of the top four picks, and the Pacers (like the Wizards and Nets) have a 52.1-percent chance of landing a top-four pick. If Indiana does, it will keep its first-round pick. But if it slides below No. 4 — it can fall as far as sixth — it will go to the LA Clippers as part of the Ivica Zubac trade from February. • The Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings are also in position to earn top-five picks. They tied for the fourth-worst record at 22-60. The exact order will be determined by a random drawing soon. The team with the fourth-best odds will have a 12.5-percent shot at the top pick, while the other team will have a 10.5-percent chance. The drawing holds significance for the Jazz. The franchise would lose its first-round pick if it falls outside the top eight selections, but the Jazz can only fall as far as eighth if they earn the fourth-best odds; they can slip to nine if they are slotted fifth. • By losing Sunday, the Memphis Grizzlies were a big winner. With a loss to the Houston Rockets, they finished with the sixth-worst record (25-57). They have a 9.0-percent chance at the top pick and a 37.2-percent chance at a top-four selection. • The Dallas Mavericks, however, beat the Chicago Bulls for their 26th win, which tied them with the New Orleans Pelicans. That will send them to a random drawing to decide who gets the seventh-best lottery odds. The Mavericks are hoping for more luck this year after they won a drawing with the Bulls to get the No. 11 slot last year, from which they jumped all the way to the top and took Cooper Flagg. • The Pelicans’ pick, wherever it lands, will not go to the Pelicans. The Atlanta Hawks will get the better of the Pelicans and Milwaukee Bucks’ picks. Milwaukee finished with the 10th-worst record (32-50) after a final-day loss to the Philadelphia 76ers and finished with one more win than the Chicago Bulls, who have a 4.5-percent shot at the No. 1 pick. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms Mike Vorkunov is the national basketball business reporter for The Athletic. He covers the intersection of money and basketball and covers the sport at every level. He previously spent three-plus seasons as the New York Knicks beat writer. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikeVorkunov