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Nisan 2026İstanbulDünya genelinde piyasalardaki eğilimi gösteren MSCI Dünya Endeksi, bu yılın ocak ve şubat aylarında yıl başına göre pozitif seyrini korurken, mart ayında Orta Doğu’daki çatışmaların etkisiyle negatif tarafa geçti. Söz konusu endeks, sektörlerin ağırlıklarına göre hesaplandığından, endeksi oluşturan ve ağırlığı yüksek bileşenlerdeki satış baskısı genel görünümü olumsuz etkiledi. Endeks, martta yüzde 6,6 gerilerken, yılbaşına göre kaybı yüzde 3,9 olarak hesaplandı. MSCI Dünya Endeksi, ocakta yüzde 2,2, şubatta yüzde 0,6 getiri sağladı. AA muhabirinin derlediği bilgilere göre, endeks içinde yılın ilk çeyreğinde enerji sektörü yüzde 36 ile en güçlü performansı sergilerken, kamu hizmetleri yüzde 8,3, malzeme yüzde 7,4, temel tüketim yüzde 3,5, sanayi yüzde 2,3 ve gayrimenkul yüzde 0,3 yükseldi. Aynı dönemde özel tüketim yüzde 11, bilgi teknolojileri yüzde 9,1, finans yüzde 7,6, iletişim hizmetleri yüzde 7 ve sağlık yüzde 5,1 geriledi. Analistler, ilk çeyrekte piyasalardaki temel fiyatlama ekseninin büyüme beklentilerinden çok enerji arzı, enflasyon ve finansman maliyetleri olduğunu belirtti. İlk çeyrekte en güçlü yükseliş enerji sektöründe yaşandı. Bu sektör endeksi, ocakta yüzde 12,6, şubatta yüzde 8,5 ve martta yüzde 11,3 yükseldi. Yılbaşından bu yana Orta Doğu’daki gerilimin yüksek kalması enerji sektöründeki fiyatlamaları desteklerken, ABD ve İsrail’in İran’a yönelik saldırılarının ardından Hürmüz Boğazı çevresinde oluşan arz riski petrol piyasasında sert fiyat hareketlerine yol açtı. Brent petroldeki yükseliş, küresel çapta enflasyon endişelerini artırdı. Petrol İhraç Eden Ülkeler Örgütü (OPEC) üretiminin de geçen ay günlük 7,30 milyon varil azalarak Haziran 2020’den bu yana en düşük seviyeye inmesi, petroldeki söz konusu endişeleri artırdı. Bu süreçte petrol fiyatlarındaki artış, enerji hisselerine alım getirdi. Bu arada, ABD Enerji Enformasyon İdaresi (EIA), mart görünümünde Brent petrol fiyatının kısa vadede 95 doların üzerinde kalabileceğini, ancak çatışmanın hafiflemesi ve Hürmüz Boğazı’ndaki akışın normalleşmesi halinde 2026’nın üçüncü çeyreğinde 80 doların altına gerileyebileceğini öngördü. Bu dönemde bilgi teknolojileri ve özel tüketim sektörleri, devam eden enflasyon endişeleriyle yükselen tahvil faizleri ve artan maliyet baskısı nedeniyle en zayıf performans gösterenler arasında yer aldı. Bilgi teknolojileri endeksi ocakta yüzde 1,2 gerilerken, şubatta yüzde 3,6 ve martta yüzde 4,6 düştü. Özel tüketim endeksi ocakta yüzde 0,2 yükselmesine karşın, şubatta yüzde 3,3 ve martta yüzde 8,0 geriledi. Finans sektörü ocakta yüzde 0,3 yükselirken, şubatta yüzde 1,5 ve martta yüzde 6,6 düşüş kaydetti. İletişim hizmetleri sektörü ise ocakta yüzde 4,6 yükselirken, şubatta yüzde 4,2 ve martta yüzde 7,3 geriledi. Orta Doğu kaynaklı enerji şokunun küresel çapta tahvil faizlerini yukarı çekmesi ve büyük teknoloji şirketlerinin yapay zeka yatırımları için daha yoğun borçlanma ihtiyacına yönelmesi, teknoloji hisseleri üzerindeki baskıyı artırdı. Büyük teknoloji şirketlerinin artan sermaye harcamalarının, yükselen borçlanma maliyetleriyle daha kırılgan hale geldiği belirtildi. Özel tüketim tarafında ise yüksek enerji fiyatlarının doğrudan hane halkı harcamalarını baskıladığı görüldü. ABD’de tüketici güveni martta son 3 ayın en düşük seviyesine inerken, petrol fiyatlarındaki sıçrama ve benzin maliyetlerindeki artış enflasyon endişelerini güçlendirdi. Analistler, yükselen akaryakıt fiyatlarının tüketici üzerinde maliyet baskısı yarattığını ve küresel piyasalar üzerindeki baskının arttığını belirterek, bu tablonun otomotiv, perakende, seyahat ve eğlence gibi harcamaya duyarlı alt kalemleri barındıran özel tüketim hisselerinde satış baskısını derinleştirdiğini ifade etti. Sağlık, temel tüketim ve kamu hizmetleri gibi daha savunmacı alanlarda ise daha dengeli bir görünüm izlendi. Bu durum, yatırımcıların artan oynaklık karşısında koruma algısı daha yüksek sektörlere yöneldiğine işaret etti. Sağlık sektörü ocakta yüzde 1, şubatta yüzde 2,8 yükselirken, martta yüzde 8,6 geriledi. Kamu hizmetleri sektörü ocakta yüzde 3,8, şubatta yüzde 8,8 yükselirken, martta yüzde 4,1 düşüş kaydetti. Temel tüketim sektörü ise ocakta yüzde 5,2, şubatta yüzde 8,2 yükselirken, martta yüzde 9,1 geriledi. Dünya genelinde açıklanan Satınalma Yöneticileri Endeksi (PMI) verileri de enerji ve lojistik maliyetlerinin üretim görünümünü bozduğunu gösterdi. Bu durum, savaş kaynaklı endişelerle birlikte artan enerji maliyetleri nedeniyle yılın ilk bölümünde emtia ve altyapı temasıyla desteklenen sanayi ve malzeme hisselerinde martta kar satışlarının hızlanmasına neden oldu. Sanayi, malzeme ve gayrimenkul sektörleri yılın iki ayında görece güçlü bir performans sergilese de mart ayında bu görünüm zayıfladı. Artan girdi maliyetleri, yüksek faizler ve arz-talep koşullarındaki bozulma, bu sektörlerdeki baskının temel nedenleri olarak öne çıktı. Sanayi sektörü ocakta yüzde 7,1, şubatta yüzde 6,8 yükselirken, martta yüzde 10,6 geriledi. Malzeme sektörü ocakta yüzde 8,9, şubatta yüzde 10,5 yükselirken, martta yüzde 10,7 düşüş kaydetti. Gayrimenkul sektörü ise ocakta yüzde 3,6, şubatta yüzde 6,6 artarken, martta yüzde 9,1 geriledi. Analistler, bu değişimde yükselen Hazine tahvili getirileri ile savaşın beslediği enflasyon kaygılarının etkili olduğunu belirterek, mortgage başvurularındaki düşüşün konut piyasası ve kredi büyümesine ilişkin görünümü zayıflattığını, finans hisselerinde de büyüme ve kredi talebine yönelik endişelerin baskı yarattığını kaydetti. MSCI sektör endekslerinin 2026'nın ilk üç ayında aylık bazda sağladığı getiriler ile yılbaşına göre ilk çeyrekteki performansları (yüzde): Haberi PaylaşAnadolu Ajansı web sitesinde, AA Haber Akış Sistemi (HAS) üzerinden abonelere sunulan haberler, özetlenerek yayımlanmaktadır.Abonelik için lütfen iletişime geçiniz.