MLB Best Home Run Bets For May 9, 2026—Alvarez And Hicks

LifestyleVicesMLB Best Home Run Bets For May 9, 2026—Alvarez And HicksByJosh Shepardson,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Josh Shepardson is a sports betting analyst, focused on player props.Follow AuthorMay 09, 2026, 12:06pm EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.Yordan Alvarez is one of MLB's top home run hitters in 2026.Getty ImagesThe MLB best home run bets are on a mini skid, as is the long-shot nature of betting home run props. After getting two more home run bets wrong on Friday, the season’s record is 7-25, with two no bets for players who didn’t start.Home run props don’t have to hit at a high rate to yield a meaningful profit, though. Even with two more incorrect picks on Friday, the season’s profits sit at $600. All 30 MLB teams are in action today, creating a vast pool of home run props to select from. The following two players offer the best blend of betting odds and likelihood of hitting a home run.MLB Best Home Run BetsYordan Alvarez (Houston Astros - OF)Over 0.5 Home Runs (+270) at FanDuel SportsbookYordan Alvarez’s 13 home runs in 39 games and 172 plate appearances this year are tied for the third most in MLB this season. Additionally, based on the quality of his batted balls, he’s expected to have 15.4 home runs.The 28-year-old slugger has scintillating batted-ball data this year. Among 272 qualified batters in 2026, Alvarez is fifth in barrels per plate appearance rate (13.4%), 13th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (18.4%), tied for 22nd in hard-hit rate (52.0%), tied for 40th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.3 mph), second in maximum exit velocity (117.8 mph) and seventh in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (45.6%). MORE FOR YOUAlvarez has hit seven home runs in 109 plate appearances against righties this year, launching four of them in 56 plate appearances against righties on the road. Alvarez has re...