Mike Burrows, Connelly Early and more fantasy baseball pitchers riding good (and bad) luck

This is both a fun and dangerous time of year. The difference between actual and expected stats will never be greater. But the expected stats have a very large random component, too, given the small sample sizes. So you don’t know if your big swings will connect or miss.I’m not saying to get these underachievers or dump the overachievers. This is strictly reporting on the pitchers who have terrible ERAs (over 4.50) but who have expected ERAs, based on their contact quality allowed (and Ks and BBs), under 4.00. And I’ll also note the much larger population of pitchers on the other side — those with ERAs under 4.00 who have actually been much worse in expected stats (4.50 or worse).Advertisement