Messi at plus money to score gives England vs Argentina World Cup semifinal a compelling betting angle

Well, yesterday's game did not go according to plan. Not only did I lose on the total bet that I placed, but my France ticket went up into flames as they decided it probably wasn't worth trying to win. In fairness, Spain looked like the better team in the game, looked more precise, more aggressive, and just smarter out on the pitch.

England comes into this semifinal with some momentum. The team looked a bit shaky in the beginning of the tournament, but I feel like it has found a way to piece things together. It also doesn't hurt that Jude Bellingham has become a monster out there. He is now up to six goals, which ties Harry Kane for the lead on the team. Both are still in the conversation for the Golden Boot, but that will still need some time to be determined. England hasn't looked elite on defense outside of a key stretch in the Mexico game, but now has its full team back after being without one guy due to a red card.

In the first few games of the World Cup, you had to wonder a bit if England was just there to be there. In its first match, England took down Croatia 4-2. In the next game, there was very little going and it played to a draw against Ghana. The third match saw Kane put the team on his back and net two goals in a 2-0 win over Panama. In the knockout stages, Congo DR gave England all it could handle. The match against Mexico was one of the best games I've ever watched, and the defensive stance started due to the aforementioned red card. Norway arguably had a shot to win, but one of the dumbest plays ever happened as it was a 2-on-1 opportunity for Norway and no one passed the ball to Erling Haaland, one of the best scorers in the tournament. England survives and now plays here.

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Surviving might also be a good way to describe what Argentina has done this World Cup. Things have not been easy for this squad in two of the past three games. There has been plenty of controversy, especially during the Egypt game. Although there was reason to have controversy around the England team as well, due to a ball hitting the camera before a goal was scored. Things happen, but some of them have been a little more questionable than others.

We know that Argentina's goal is to get the ball to Lionel Messi. He is one of the best players ever, and the hope is to position him to score as much as possible. He has certainly done his fair share with eight goals in the World Cup. He didn't score against Switzerland, and he really doesn't go many games without finding the net.

Does it make sense to bet on Messi here to score? At +125, this is one of the first times (and might be the only time) that I can remember him in the World Cup this year to be plus money to score a goal. England has allowed a goal in all but two of its World Cup games, so it isn't like the team is untouchable. I'll pull the trigger on Messi.

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I also think the over 2.5 is a good look. Yes, I think the teams will be a little conservative, and one is likely to score then try to play keep away. However, mistakes happen, and both teams have very capable scorers and sets. Maybe it is better to play Both Teams to Score at -130. Sure, either team could win 3-0 and the over cashes, but this bet doesn't. If it ends 1-1 after 90 minutes, I lose. That's betting. I'm a little more confident in three goals being scored, though. I'll take the over.

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For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024