Meloni's spat with Trump is calculated strategy to boost her approval ratings: expert

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s escalating feud with President Donald Trump is nothing but a calculated political strategy aimed at boosting her standing at home, a leading Italian political analyst told Fox News Digital on Sunday.

After the row between Trump and Meloni escalated on June 20, analysts also said the Italian leader may see little downside in confronting Trump, particularly as she faces declining approval ratings ahead of Italy's 2027 general election.

The diplomatic dispute had reached a boiling point after Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani announced June 19 that he was scrapping a trip to Washington, where he had been scheduled to meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

"Giorgia Meloni must have calculated that a public row with Trump yields no tangible consequences, other than an increase in her domestic and international standing," Mattia Diletti, a political science lecturer at Sapienza University of Rome, said.

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Giovanni Orsina, a political scientist at Rome’s Luiss University, also told the Financial Times that the row would offer a "positive image" for Meloni and a "silver lining" to a confrontation she had "desperately tried to avoid."

The friction between Trump and Meloni intensified after an interview broadcast by Italy’s La7 television network, where the president claimed she had asked for a photograph with him at the G7 summit and that he agreed only out of pity.

"She begged me to take a picture with her," Trump said. "She wanted a picture with me so badly. I wouldn’t have taken it, but I felt sorry for her."

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Meloni fired back, releasing a video statement on X rejecting the president’s narrative.

"I am frankly stunned," Meloni said in the video message. "I don’t know why the president of the United States behaves this way toward his own allies. But there’s one thing he must remember: Neither I nor Italy ever beg."

Trump doubled down on Truth Social and tied the row directly to Meloni’s political fortunes.

"Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni asked, over and over, for a picture with me during the G7 meeting in France," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

"She is doing poorly in Italy with her level of popularity, possibly because she turned down the United States of America... when it came to denying Iran from obtaining or developing a nuclear weapon ... She wouldn’t even let us use Italy’s landing strips or runways, a great logistical inconvenience ... Now, after the United States defeated Iran militarily, she wants to be friends again in order to get her 'numbers up.' No thanks!!!"

Within hours, Meloni responded on social media: "As for my popularity, being your friend certainly has not helped it ... My popularity depends on my ability to defend Italy’s national interest... In any case, my popularity is none of your concern. I suggest you focus on yours."

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The back-and-forth marks a reversal for two leaders who once enjoyed a close political alignment.

When Meloni first came to power, she positioned herself as a bridge between Washington and Brussels while pushing ties with Trump based on shared nationalism and stances on immigration.

"Politically, Trump has favored Meloni," Diletti noted, pointing out that she had previously visited Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida in 2025. She was the only European Union leader to attend his second inauguration.

The cracks also appeared in April when Trump criticized Meloni for siding with Pope Leo XIV’s condemnation of the U.S. conflict with Iran.

On Sunday, Trump also criticized Italy and Giorgia Meloni over their approach to Iran, accusing the NATO ally of failing to help confront Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

"As the 2027 Italian general election approaches, Meloni is facing a decline in approval ratings for the first time," Diletti explained.

"The opportunity to counter a President so unpopular in Europe and Italy helps bolster her approval ratings and allows her to build European solidarity," he claimed.