Megapoll shows Labour face worst election result EVER in Wales tomorrow as party is put to the sword by Plaid and Reform

By JAMES TAPSFIELD, UK POLITICAL EDITOR Published: 09:50, 6 May 2026 | Updated: 09:56, 6 May 2026 Labour is facing its worst ever result in Wales tomorrow with Plaid and Reform sweeping the board, according to a megapoll. YouGov's last survey of the campaign found Keir Starmer's nightmare could become reality, with the party's support plummeting by two-thirds from the general election. Labour is on track to secure just 12 of the 96 seats up for grabs at the Senedd. The nationalists are projected to get 43, with Nigel Farage's insurgents racking up 34. Such results would be a staggering fall from grace for Labour, which has held the First Minister post since devolution nearly 30 years ago. The party has come top in Wales at every election since 1922 - before universal suffrage was introduced, marking the start of modern politics. Welsh Labour leader Baroness Morgan - who has been highly critical of Sir Keir - could fail to get a seat for herself.  YouGov's last survey of the campaign in Wales found Keir Starmer's nightmare could become reality, with the party's support plummeting by two-thirds from the general election Welsh Labour chief Baroness Morgan complained that the premier 'comes up as an issue on the doorstep' (pictured together in February) However, the central estimate in the YouGov research - conducted using the MRP method of mapping voter characteristics to local demographic factors - would still probably see Labour in government. Plaid would be just short of an outright majority in the central estimate.  The nationalists appear to have consolidated their position since the firm's mid-April poll found they were tied with Reform on 29 per cent support across Wales. Plaid is now seen as on a 33 per cent vote share, with Reform on 29 per cent. YouGov stressed that the D'Hondt voting system now used in Wales - with list and regional seats - is particularly sensitive to small shifts so a range of outcomes are possible. A blame game is already under way today as Sir Keir makes a desperate final plea to voters. The PM has urged Brits not to follow the 'politics of anger' as he braces for disastrous results across Britain. Close ally Pat McFadden was also deployed to broadcast studios this morning to make clear Sir Keir will fight any leadership challenge.  But even as frantic campaigning continues, Welsh Labour chief Baroness Morgan complained that the premier 'comes up as an issue on the doorstep'. She admitted the party could lose control of the Senedd for the first time since devolution because the public wants to 'pick a fight' with Sir Keir. The YouGov estimates would still probably see Labour in government as Plaid would be just short of an outright majority No comments have so far been submitted. Why not be the first to send us your thoughts, or debate this issue live on our message boards. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. We’ll ask you to confirm this for your first post to Facebook. You can choose on each post whether you would like it to be posted to Facebook. Your details from Facebook will be used to provide you with tailored content, marketing and ads in line with our Privacy Policy.