Makerfield has delivered one of the most consequential by-election results in a century

Makerfield last night did not fail to disappoint and delivered perhaps one of the most consequential by-election results for a century.

Andy Burnham’s win defied all expectations, with the Manchester mayor securing 55 per cent of the vote share.

That was more votes than all 13 rival candidates combined.

In his acceptance speech, he warned supporters: “This is the final chance to change.”

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We know what this means: a leadership election which could see Sir Keir Starmer ejected from Downing Street could happen as soon as next week, which looks nailed on.

The question is who will make the first move to fire the starting gun, Team Streeting or Team Burnham?

If Mr Burnham wins, what happens next?

Ministers tell GB News Mr Burnham wants to focus on fixing big-ticket items such as defence, small boats and adult social care.

All expensive, but the same problems remain.

How can this be paid for?

UK public sector debt currently stands at 94.2 per cent of GDP, whilst growth is sluggish and private-sector wage growth has stalled.

There is no money, and the country is in dire straits.

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And if a Burnham administration decides to keep Chancellor Rachel Reeves in No11 to calm the markets, they will have to accept sticking with her fiscal rules, further constraining Mr Burnham's borrowing and spending plans that the Makerfield man may have.

If the King of the North wins the impending Labour civil war, pressure will grow for a general election.

And Mr Burnham adopts policies outside of the party's 2024 general election manifesto, he will come under pressure from opposition parties and some voters to go to the country early with a snap general election.

There would be logic, though, in calling a snap general election early in his premiership.

Labour would likely receive the shot in the arm that they are looking for, with honeymoon polling likely to present Mr Burnham with his best chance of beating Reform UK.

Labour should beware, as there was strong evidence last night that the extraordinary scale of Mr Burnham’s win was driven in part by tactical voting, as Liberal Democrat, Green and Reform voters switched to Labour in the by-election.

No wonder: Nigel Farage's party won big in the local elections in Makerfield last month on a message of “Vote Reform and kick out Starmer”.

This time the message was a little different – vote Labour and kick out Starmer – but the end result was the same.

Sir Keir says he wants to fight the incoming leadership contest.

Yet with 100 Labour MPs now wanting him out, that choice may be taken out of his hands

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