MacKinnon, Andersen, Marner, Dobeš lead Stanley Cup playoffs MVP race

AtlanticBruinsCanadiensLightningMaple LeafsPanthersRed WingsSabresSenatorsMetropolitanBlue JacketsCapitalsDevilsFlyersHurricanesIslandersPenguinsRangersCentralAvalancheBlackhawksBluesJetsMammothPredatorsStarsWildPacificCanucksDucksFlamesGolden KnightsKingsKrakenOilersSharksScores & ScheduleStandingsPodcastsFantasyNHL OddsNHL PicksLatest NHL mock draftUFA big boardPlayoff bracketRed Light NewsletterStanley Cup Nathan MacKinnon's regular-season dominance has continued through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Isaiah J. Downing / Imagn Images Share articleWe’re down to the final four: Colorado, Carolina, Vegas, Montreal.  One of those teams will hoist the Stanley Cup, and before that, the best player from that outfit will hoist the Conn Smythe Trophy, the award for playoff MVP. Now is a good time to check in on the best candidates from each team. In order of Stanley Cup likelihood going into the conference finals, here are the best Conn Smythe contenders from the four finalists. Stanley Cup chances: 41 percent We’ve seen MacKinnon outright dominate series to explosive degrees only matched by Connor McDavid. His work through the first two rounds isn’t that; it’s business as usual. And business is booming for MacKinnon. The Avalanche superstar has seven goals and 13 points in nine games so far, as well as a dominant 61 percent xG rate, and has outscored opponents 8-3 at five-on-five. Extrapolate that to an 82-game pace, and it’s not far off from his usual regular-season dominance. Maybe that’s boring to some, but when it comes to postseason action, matching regular-season output pound-for-pound is a good thing — and given the nature of the beast, a majority of the league just doesn’t do that. MacKinnon remains Colorado’s engine; the Avalanche go as far as he takes them. Right now, that’s to a 9-1 record as the favorite to go the distance. As excellent as usual is MVP-worthy for MacKinnon. Move over Cale Makar, it’s your partner’s turn to shine. Despite the lower assist total (just one!) for Makar, he’s been dominant enough at five-on-five to get full marks for total value. It’s just that Toews has been a little better across the board. He’s played more (25.5 minutes to 25), he’s scored more (eight points to five) and he’s outchanced opponents more (63.4 percent to 62 percent). All of that gives him a 0.4 goal edge in Net Rating so far. Whether that continues is a different story, but for now, Toews has been Colorado’s best defenseman. Stanley Cup chances: 32 percent All season, it was easy to envision goaltending as Carolina’s Achilles’ heel. The clock struck midnight on Brandon Bussi, Pyotr Kochetkov was out all season and Andersen was mid when available. All of that changed through the first two rounds; no goalie saved more goals above expected than Andersen’s 13, built off a stunning .950 save percentage. He’s without question the biggest reason the Hurricanes started the playoffs 8-0. However, Montreal’s sharpshooting is a different challenge than that of both Ottawa and Philadelphia, two teams with a history of settling for quantity over quality. Andersen has a chance to build an already strong case; he just has to prove himself against the most dangerous offensive team in Carolina’s path through the East. Hall won the Hart Trophy in 2018 and has suited up for five other teams since in a waning career. He found a home in Carolina last season, and in these playoffs, he’s turned back the clock with a career-best stretch. If all goes right, he might add playoff MVP to his mantle; he’s been that good so far. While all eyes were on Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis and Nikolaj Ehlers, it was Hall who was arguably Carolina’s most efficient five-on-five player this season. He led the team in points per 60 at 2.22, and his 57 percent xG rate was near the top among forwards. Most efficient doesn’t necessarily mean most valuable, but Hall was quietly dominant in his minutes during the season.  He’s taken that up a notch during the playoffs. At five-on-five, Hall has a 63 percent xG, is up 11-1 on the scoreboard and leads all players with 10 points at five-on-five and a stunning 5.68 per-60 rate. On a per-game basis — because Carolina has played fewer games than any other team — no player has been more valuable than Hall.  Honorable mentions: K’Andre Miller, Logan Stankoven Stanley Cup chances: 18 percent Who else but Marner? He leads the playoffs with 18 points, has earned a 61 percent xG rate, and has dominated in both of Vegas’ series-deciding games. That narrative matters given his tendency to disappear in Toronto’s highest-leverage games. Of course, quality of competition matters here. Vegas hasn’t exactly gone through Marner’s usual gauntlet of defensive behemoths, and the fact he plays below Jack Eichel in the lineup counts for something, too. The real test starts now with a series against the Avalanche. If Marner can keep up his current level of play against the league’s best team, playoff MVP will be firmly in reach.  Marner’s the obvious pick for Vegas, but Theodore deserves a lot of credit for his defensive work so far. Theodore has nine points in 12 games and has been dominant defensively while facing the best weapons Utah and Anaheim had to offer. With Theodore on the ice, Vegas allowed just 1.75 xGA/60 and 1.78 GA/60, and perhaps more importantly, the Golden Knights have been a bit of a mess otherwise.  Theodore’s defensive glow-up this season has been a revelation; we’ll see if he can keep it up against MacKinnon and company. There is no world where the Montreal Canadiens are here in the conference finals without the heroics of Dobeš. Through 14 games, he’s saved 10.1 goals above expected, but most important is when those saves have occurred. The best saves are the timeliest ones, and Dobeš has delivered on that front when it mattered most: across two Game 7s. It’s no secret the Canadiens weren’t the better team in either game, but they’re 2-0 because Dobeš was, without question, the better goalie. The Lightning had a heavily tilted ice and managed 2.87 xG against Dobeš in Game 7, but he stood tall, allowing just one goal. The Sabres absolutely barraged Dobeš with chances in their Game 7, generating 5.1 xG, but Dobeš allowed just two.  For those doing the math at home, that’s nearly half of Dobeš’ GSAx coming in two Game 7s. Clutch doesn’t even begin to describe it, and the Hurricanes will have their hands full trying to solve Dobeš when it matters most. There were many worthy questions about whether the undersized Hutson could handle the vigor of the Stanley Cup playoffs. So far, the proof is right there on the ice, as Hutson leads the Canadiens in points with 14, one back of Quinn Hughes for the lead among defensemen. Hutson leads all players in Offensive Rating at plus-3.5 as a result. Sure, there have been some rocky moments defensively, but Hutson has delivered in spades offensively; enough for the off-puck play — which is just average, anyway — to not really matter. And while Montreal has been getting outchanced for most of the playoffs, Hutson has done his part to hold the fort with a 50.3 percent xG rate. Arber Xhekaj, in sheltered minutes, is the only other regular on the back end above 50 percent; everyone else is below 46 percent. After an incredible regular season, Hutson has remained as good as advertised when it counts. Honorable mentions: Alex Newhook Data via Hockey Stats and Hockey Stat Cards Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms