LEE CARTER: Why I believe collapsing trust, not ideology, is reshaping American politics

After every recent election in which a Democratic Socialist or self-described progressive outsider scores an upset victory, the same debate erupts: Is America really moving that far to the left?

Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s rise in New York reignited the question. Before his campaign collapsed, Graham Platner’s meteoric rise in Maine sparked similar headlines. And now, as Democrats look to replace him, many are rallying around Troy Jackson, a self-described "pickup truck progressive."

The conventional wisdom is that these victories signal a country embracing increasingly liberal ideas.

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I don’t think that’s what’s happening.

The rise of democratic socialism isn’t the story.

It’s the symptom.

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The real story is that millions of Americans have lost confidence in the institutions they once trusted to solve problems, create opportunity and make government work. And when confidence in institutions collapses, voters don’t necessarily move left or right. They become far more willing to embrace candidates who promise to disrupt the status quo.

Gallup’s latest polling should be a flashing warning light. Confidence in America’s institutions remains near historic lows. Congress commands the confidence of just 9% of Americans. Confidence in the criminal justice system, organized religion, higher education, big business and many other institutions Americans once relied upon has eroded dramatically over the past generation.

Look beyond the individual numbers and a striking pattern emerges.

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This isn’t a crisis in one institution.

It’s a crisis of confidence in the entire system.

That’s an important distinction because politics doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Voters don’t evaluate candidates based solely on policy positions. They also evaluate whether the institutions surrounding those policies are capable of delivering results.

When Americans stop believing those institutions work, they stop rewarding candidates who promise incremental change.

They start looking for alternatives.

Some find them on the right.

Some find them on the left.

But almost all of them are looking for outsiders.

That’s what made Platner’s campaign so compelling before it unraveled. His appeal wasn’t simply about progressive policy. He represented a rejection of politics as usual. His outsider status became part of his message.

The same is true of Mamdani.

Whether you agree with his policies or not, his supporters aren’t simply voting for a platform. They’re voting for disruption. They’re voting against institutions they believe have failed them.

And look at what happened in Maine after Platner exited the race.

Many Democrats didn’t immediately search for the safest establishment replacement. Instead, attention quickly shifted to Jackson — a candidate who proudly brands himself a "pickup truck progressive" and who has built his career positioning himself as a champion of working people against entrenched interests.

Different state.

Different ideology.

The same political demand.

We’re seeing versions of this story play out across the country.

Candidates who promise to challenge institutions are outperforming candidates who promise simply to manage them.

The labels vary.

The frustration does not.

This is why I believe we continue to misread this political moment.

The defining divide in American politics is no longer simply Democrat versus Republican.

Nor is it liberal versus conservative.

Increasingly, it is establishment versus anti-establishment.

Institution versus outsider.

The rise of democratic socialism is one manifestation of that shift.

Right-wing populism is another.

They are different political expressions of the same underlying condition: millions of Americans no longer believe the institutions around them are capable of solving the problems they face.

That should concern all of us.

A healthy democracy depends on citizens believing that its institutions — while imperfect — are fundamentally legitimate and capable of correcting mistakes, enforcing rules fairly and delivering results.

When that confidence disappears, disruption becomes more attractive than stability.

History tells us that people rarely embrace political movements on the fringe simply because they wake up one day with a new ideology.

They do it because they lose confidence in the institutions that once made moderation feel sufficient.

That is why I don’t believe the rise of democratic socialism is the biggest story in American politics.

The bigger story is the collapse of confidence that made its rise possible.

Until our institutions begin earning back the confidence of the American people, we shouldn’t be surprised to see more candidates like Zohran Mamdani.

Or Graham Platner.

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Or Troy Jackson.

Because they aren’t the cause of this political moment.

They’re the consequence of it.

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