Labour's VAT raid sees private school pupil numbers fall by 30,000 - with 20,000 fewer in last year alone

By ELEANOR HARDING, EDUCATION EDITOR Published: 15:34, 3 June 2026 | Updated: 15:36, 3 June 2026 Private school pupils are in decline following Labour's VAT raid, with 30,000 fewer enrolled since before it took effect. New figures show there are now 526,611 pupils in private schools, down from 556,551 two years ago. The bulk of the decrease – 20,000 – came in the last year alone. The data comes from the annual January census of the Independent Schools Council (ISC), which represents the majority of private schools. It suggests many families are being priced out of the sector due to the 20 per cent tax, which came into effect in January 2025. Labour originally said the sector would shrink by only 37,000 pupils in the long run as a result of the policy – but this may now turn out to be an underestimate. ISC chief executive Julie Robinson said: 'This year's census shows a significant fall in pupil numbers across independent schools. 'Behind these figures are families facing difficult financial decisions and schools working hard to preserve the opportunities, expertise and support that parents value. Private school pupils are in decline following Labour's VAT raid, with 30,000 fewer enrolled since before it took effect (pictured: children protesting against the tax last year)  'While independent schools remain resilient, these trends demonstrate that policy decisions can have real consequences for families' educational choices.' The data shows pupil numbers are down by 6.6 per cent in some year groups. There are fewer families choosing to enrol at the start of primary, prep school or sixth form – suggesting it is the new starters that are being deterred. Pupils fell across all areas but the biggest regional decline was in Scotland, where the reduction was 5.6 per cent. This was followed by Wales with 6 per cent and the North East with 6.4 per cent. Direct comparison of schools that completed the survey in 2026 and 2025 showed the biggest proportional drops were at the start of sixth form and primary Year 1. Primaries and preps showed a larger overall fall in numbers - 5 per cent - than secondaries up to GCSE year, which saw a fall of 3.3 per cent. Numbers starting sixth form in Year 12 fell by 6.6 per cent – the largest decrease – while the smallest declines were for Year 11 and Year 13, which are the GCSE and A-level exam years. New figures show there are now 526,611 pupils in private schools, down from 556,551 two years ago (pictured: protesters outside the High Court last year)  Year 1 also fell by 6.6 per cent, and Year 3, the intake year for most prep schools, by 6.2 per cent. Year 6, the last year of primary, fell by 2.5 per cent but Year 7, the first year of secondary, was 5.6 per cent lower, suggesting that some parents are remaining in the system until the end of a stage of education before withdrawing their children. While a declining birth rate overall is causing a shrinkage of the entire pupil population, it appears private school numbers are being hit hardest. The overall pupil population of England fell by 0.66 per cent between January 2024 and January 2025. About 100 private schools have announced closure since VAT on fees was introduced. Saqib Bhatti, the shadow schools minister, said: 'Children and families are paying the cost of a policy that is disrupting education without delivering the benefits Labour promised.' The Government has been contacted for comment. The comments below have not been moderated. The views expressed in the contents above are those of our users and do not necessarily reflect the views of MailOnline. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. We’ll ask you to confirm this for your first post to Facebook. You can choose on each post whether you would like it to be posted to Facebook. Your details from Facebook will be used to provide you with tailored content, marketing and ads in line with our Privacy Policy.