Labour on course to keep control of Greater Manchester with comfortable poll lead over Reform in mayoral election to replace Burnham

By DAVID WILCOCK, DEPUTY POLITICAL EDITOR Published: 11:28, 17 July 2026 | Updated: 11:34, 17 July 2026 Labour is on course to remain in charge of Greater Manchester as a new poll shows Bev Craig on course to replace Andy Burnham as mayor. Ms Craig has a 14 point lead over Reform's Sian Astley, 38 per cent to 24 per cent, in the first round of voting on July 30, and would win the second round head-to-head 62-38, according to YouGov. It is the second poll this week to hand a comfortable win to Labour in an election Reform initially had strong hopes of winning. It comes after Mr Burnham's comfortable win in the Makerfield by-election last month, in which Reform did worse than expected. At the same time, it is diverting time and resources into fighting the by-election called by Nigel Farage in Clacton amid a row over the party's financial arrangements. YouGov's Greater Manchester poll found that 66 per cent of voters believe Mr Burnham did a good job as mayor, including a majority of Conservative, Green and Lib Dem supporters and more than a third (36 per cent) of Reform voters. At the same time a plurality (44 per cent) saying he was right to quit and stand to be Labour leader. Your browser does not support iframes. Ms Craig has a 14 point lead over Reform's Sian Astley, 38 per cent to 24 per cent, in the first round of voting on July 30, and would win the second round head-to-heat 62-38, according to YouGov Unlike the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system used the last time the mayoralty was contested in 2024, this time it will revert to the supplementary vote system, which allows voters to vote for a second, alternative candidate. These votes are counted if no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of votes in the first round, triggering a second round of voting.  A Find Out Now poll earlier this week showed Ms Craig beating the Greens 64-36 in the second round and against Reform, she would win 66-34.   Ms Craig currently serves as a deputy mayor in Greater Manchester with a portfolio covering the economy, business and 'inclusive growth'. She became leader of Manchester City Council in December 2021, succeeding the long-serving Sir Richard Leese in the post. Originally from Northern Ireland, the 41-year-old moved to Greater Manchester aged 18. She is the city's first female council leader and its first LGBT leader. Geraldine Coggins, the Green candidate, is a Trafford councillor, as is Tory candidate Phil Eckersley. Reform's candidate is Sian Astley, who leads the party group on Manchester City Council.  Marlon West, a campaigner against sexual abuse, is the Restore Britain candidate.