'Knife-edge' Makerfield by-election could be handed to Labour's Andy Burnham by Nigel Farage rival running against Reform, says polling guru

By GREG HEFFER, POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT Published: 10:21, 26 May 2026 | Updated: 10:24, 26 May 2026 Andy Burnham could be handed victory in the 'knife-edge' Makerfield by-election by Nigel Farage's rival running against Reform UK, according to Britain's leading pollster. The Greater Manchester mayor is Labour's candidate in the 18 June contest and is hoping to secure a return to Westminster with a view to challenging Keir Starmer. The first poll of the by-election campaign has suggested Mr Burnham has a slim lead over Reform candidate Robert Kenyon. And Reform figures fear their chances of success are being hampered by Restore Britain, an outfit led by Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe, also standing a candidate. Professor Sir John Curtice said Restore fighting the by-election was 'good news' for Mr Burnham as it threatened to split the Right-wing vote in the constituency. The top pollster added that Mr Lowe's party was 'making life much more difficult for Reform' in the 'knife-edge' by-election. It came as the Green Party announced a new candidate for the Makerfield contest after their previous choice withdrew from the contest. Sarah Wakefield, a Manchester city councillor, said her message was 'the future can be better and fairer than the failed status quo' as she was unveiled as the Green hopeful. Andy Burnham could be handed victory in the 'knife-edge' Makerfield by-election by Nigel Farage's rival running against Reform UK, according to Britain's leading pollster  Reform figures fear their chances of success are being hampered by Restore Britain, an outfit led by Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe, also standing a candidate The previous Green candidate, Chris Kennedy, pulled out after just nine hours citing 'personal and family reasons'. He apologised after it was reported that he had shared a social media post calling an attack on Jewish ambulances in north London a 'false flag'. The first poll of the by-election campaign suggested Mr Burnham (on 43 per cent support) has a three-point lead over Reform's Mr Kenyon (40 per cent). Restore were third in the Survation survey on 7 per cent support. Speaking to The Telegraph about the Makerfield by-election, Sir John said: 'The place is on an absolute knife-edge, so far as what is sometimes thought as being the Right-wing bloc and the Left-wing bloc. 'Reform has managed, evidently, from looking at the transfer numbers, to squeeze the Tory vote. But Restore Britain is intervening and making life much more difficult for Reform. 'On the one hand, so far as Burnham is concerned, the intervention of Restore Britain is definitely good news. 'On the other hand, it also shows that if Reform are able to squeeze this Restore vote – because they've lost one in eight of their 2024 voters to Restore – then, even if this poll is accurate, Reform could still overtake Burnham.' Your browser does not support iframes. The Greens' leader in Westminster has admitted the party will pull their punches in the by-election campaign to give Labour a better shot at winning. Zack Polanski's party will not throw 'the kitchen sink' at the upcoming contest, Ellie Chowns said on Monday – in a seeming stitch-up on the Left. Speaking at the Hay Festival, Dr Chowns said: 'In this particular constituency, there is a question, I think, about the extent to which any party might throw the kitchen sink at a campaign. 'We threw the kitchen sink at Gorton and Denton, and we won it. Makerfield is a different kettle of fish.' The Greens' game play in Makerfield is now piling more pressure on the Right to unite to keep Mr Burnham from No. 10. Commenting on the Greens' plans, former Conservative Cabinet minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said: 'I fear the left is more politically astute than the right. At the last election they clearly had an informal cooperation over seats and now they admit it for the Makerfield by-election. 'The right must learn from this and work together in a similar fashion. As Margaret Thatcher said 'Marxists get up early in the morning to further their cause'. 'We must get up even earlier to defend our freedom.' Unfortunately, we are now lie-a-beds.'  No comments have so far been submitted. Why not be the first to send us your thoughts, or debate this issue live on our message boards. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? 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