KEVIN MAGUIRE: 'Nigel Farage has fatal weakness - the decent majority could wipe the smile off his face'

KEVIN MAGUIRE: 'Nigel Farage has fatal weakness - the decent majority could wipe the smile off his face'Five parties in England, six in both Wales and Scotland, throws up all sorts of outcomes under a two-party winner-takes-all electoral system – and Reform, at the moment, has the largest minority vote shareNewsopinionKevin Maguire Associate Editor20:34, 10 May 2026View ImageNigel Farage isn't guaranteed power alone(Image: Getty Images) Backslapping and Reform UK triumphalism can’t hide Nigel ­Farage’s fatal weakness in his moment of strength. ‌ The Thai funny-money-funded turbo Tory dining out on his hard right party’s big gains in England’s councils, Welsh Senedd and Scottish Parliament would have good cause not to be as privately confident as he publicly appears. ‌ Because Reform undeniably did well and, in England, considerably better than four chasing parties – including walloped Labour. ‌ But behind the 1,451 seats gained and local authority jewels like Sunderland was a telling fall in the party’s projected share of the national vote. Down 5% to 27% on last year, according to number-crunching ­political experts Colin Rawlings and Michael Thrasher, and that should ring general election alarm bells for Farage and give opponents new hope. Because Reform is no popular ­bandwagon gathering speed but a business run by a wealthy elite afraid of scrutiny over Farage’s £5million bung, broken promises in places like Kent and the poison of horrors who would fill potholes with melted Nigerians. ‌ The decent majority’s revulsion is a ceiling for a Reform that actually peaked last year. And that 27% wouldn’t translate into a Parliamentary majority with massive tactical voting in a general election, which the shrewd Labour former Deputy Leader Tom Watson believes would be a Stop Farage contest, wiping the smile off the Reform boss’s face. BBC experts extrapolating results in parts of Britain over the entire nation found 51% voting left for Labour, Greens and Lib Dems and 43% right for Reform and Conservatives. That’s a wider split than the 52-48 Brexit division in 2016 and a path to put Farage in the dustbin of history, not Downing Street. Political scientist Rob Ford noted Labour largely lost seats to Reform but votes to the Greens. Tacking left, being more authentically Labour, is clearly the answer when echoing Reform failed. And that would help Labour-Green-Lib Dem tactical voters put crosses on ballot papers next to the candidate most likely in a constituency to beat the Faragist. ‌ Five parties in England, six in both Wales and Scotland, throws up all sorts of outcomes under a two-party winner-takes-all electoral system – and Reform, at the moment, has the largest minority vote share. Yet it is way below Labour’s record winning low of 34% for a Westminster majority two years ago. The next Parliament is odds-on hung, requiring a coalition or producing a government struggling daily to enact change. Farage, despite all his crypto money, isn’t guaranteed power alone or in ­alliance with a Conservative Party he and all eight Reform MPs left. I bet he knows that. And that he’s worried they have peaked too soon. ‌ William Hague’s Tories won a then record 1,348 council seats in 1999. Tony Blair crushed the Cons at the next General Election. I’m no Mystic Mag with a clearing crystal ball. The future is uncertain. That’s what will be most freaking Farage. Lowe blow to ReformCasting himself as a man of steel by renationalising Scunthorpe and Britain’s last two blast furnaces to save vital virgin production of the cornerstone metal would be smart by Keir Starmer to prove Labour’s value. Smarter still would have been British Steel’s renationalisation in April last year to trigger public investment instead of seizing control to stop Chinese owners Jingye shutting the Lincolnshire plant then burning through more than £1million a day. Article continues belowBut the bottom line is the Prime Minister, in a big speech at Wednesday’s state opening of Parliament, has the opportunity to detail what Labour will do for the country. With his party descending into civil war and a clamour growing for him to go, the question isn’t only whether Starmer will survive but will anybody be able to hear Labour’s message over the deafening din.