Keir Starmer will find it 'difficult to survive' a leadership contest against Andy Burnham, top pollster tells GB News

A top pollster has predicted that Sir Keir Starmer will find it "difficult to survive" a leadership contest against Andy Burnham.

Speaking to GB News, Sir John Curtice said the by-election victory for the outgoing Mayor of Greater Manchester shows that Mr Burnham has the "ability to raise Labour support".

Speaking at a victory rally in Makerfield, the newly elected MP declared it is the Labour Government's "last chance for change".

He said: "We've been on a path for 40 years that simply hasn't worked for people and places in this part of the world, and this now is the change moment.

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"That is the main thing I think we need in this country right now, for people to feel a sense of hope that there is something better to work towards on the horizon."

Delivering his verdict on Mr Burnham's comfortable victory, Sir John told GB News: "It certainly will be a significant result if eventually Mr Burnham displaces Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.

"Frankly, I think it's going to be difficult for Sir Keir to survive, even if he does stand, and that part of the drama has yet to play out."

The pollster suggested that Mr Burnham could make the Labour Party "more competitive" for support against Reform UK in future elections.

He said: "It's certainly indicated that perhaps Andy Burnham has an ability to raise Labour support so that it is potentially more competitive with Reform than is hitherto been the case.

"And that may happen, even if support for Reform remains roughly what it is."

Sir John explained: "One of the things we should be remembering is, although Reform have been ahead in the polls now for over 12 months, they're only running at 27 per cent.

"It looks such a good number because they're still seven points ahead of Labour, but if Labour can start raising their support a bit, even if it's only by squeezing the Greens, that potentially makes Reform's life more difficult."

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Sir John highlighted that there is still "quite considerable antipathy towards Reform" over Brexit and immigration.

He told GB News: "There clearly is a quite considerable antipathy towards Reform amongst those who are not attracted by its message on Brexit, its message on immigration, its message on equalities policies.

"And there is a feeling, rightly or wrongly, amongst some people who are not persuaded of that view that to some degree it's something they don't wish to see represented in British politics."

Sir John argued: "At the end of the day, voters are kings. Of course, that said, of course it's also true in this instance, as it was in Gordon and Denton, it became very clear to voters who was Reform's principal competitor.

"That will not always be true, and of course, it's still also true that the ability of Andy Burnham to mop up some of the anti-Reform vote is also potentially a function also of the fact that he also personally is relatively popular even amongst some people who are not necessarily Labour supporters."

Reflecting on the low Conservative vote in the Makerfield election, GB News host Miriam Cates questioned whether the "Conservative Party is over".

Disagreeing with Miriam, Sir John responded: "I think it's far too early to say that. I think the point about Aberdeen South is this frankly as spectacular a result as that achieved by Andy Burnham.

"There were no signs in the Scottish Parliament elections last month of the Conservatives doing particularly well in Aberdeen. The 25-point increase in Conservative support is even bigger than the 23 point increase that Boris Johnson got in Hartlepool in May 2021, so this was a truly spectacular result.

"And it was won essentially on the back of a focus on opposition to Labour and SNP's reluctance to facilitate further exploration and perhaps exploitation of oil and gas in the North Sea. That, of course, has particular resonance in Aberdeen."

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