June jobs report likely to show stable hiring, but economists see plenty of warning signs

Trump tariffsJune jobs report likely to show stable hiring, but economists see plenty of warning signsWage growth is expected to tick slightly higher, but rising inflation has put pressure on real wage values. Listen to this article with a free profile00:0000:00The U.S. labor market has spent the past three months trying to get back on solid footing after several months of net job losses around the end of 2025. Justin Sullivan / Getty ImagesShareAdd NBC News to GoogleJuly 2, 2026, 5:00 AM EDTBy Steve KopackThe Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June jobs report, which will be released on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show that the recent trend of stable hiring continued for a fourth straight month, but that wage growth remains below inflation. Limited time: Save 25% on NBC News subscriptionGet exclusive reporting, live Q&As and ad-free reading.The report is likely to show a gain of 115,000 jobs, the unemployment rate largely unchanged at 4.3% and average hourly wage growth of 3.5%, according to a survey of analysts and economists conducted by Dow Jones. The report is being issued on Thursday instead of its traditional Friday release because U.S. bond and stock markets will be closed July 3 in observance of Independence Day. The big picture on jobsThe U.S. labor market has spent the past three months trying to get back on solid footing after several months of net job losses near the end of 2025. And it appears to be working: During each of the past three months, the U.S. economy posted solid job gains of more than 170,000, after multiple months of job contraction.Even if Thursday’s overall figure is more than 115,000 job gains, it could still be the smallest number of additions since February.Many economists also see fresh risks to the labor market lurking ahead. “After three months of strong payroll job gains and the unemployment rate stable at 4.3%, markets have become accustomed to the narrative that the labor market has stabilized,” wrote Citigroup econom...