Jobs report is expected to show a pickup in hiring — but with stagnant wages

EconomyJobs report is expected to show a pickup in hiring — but with stagnant wagesEconomists also see the potential for job gains to extend beyond the healthcare field.Listen to this article with a free profile00:0000:00Job seekers attend a job fair on May 12 in Chicago.Scott Olson / Getty Images fileShareAdd NBC News to GoogleAug. 7, 2026, 5:30 AM EDTBy Steve KopackJuly’s heat may not have extended to the U.S. job market.The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its nonfarm payroll report for last month at 8:30 a.m. ET. It’s projected to show a modest pickup in hiring, albeit with stagnant wages.Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the release to show 83,000 added roles, more than June’s 57,000. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 4.2%, according to those economists.The hiring data comes against a complicated economic backdrop. The U.S. war with Iran continues without any kind of agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, energy prices remain elevated, even if they are off their highest levels of the year. The average price of regular gasoline also remains high, at $4.06 per gallon, up 36% since Feb. 28. Inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target at 3.5%. Wages are struggling to keep pace.“Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3%, which will boost wages 3.5% from a year ago,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at accounting and finance firm KPMG. “That is the same as June and suggests that the cooling we had seen in wages may be hitting a trough.”“The challenge is inflation,” Swonk said, “which after a brief reprieve in June, accelerated again in response to the conflict in the Middle East.”Wage growth has gradually weakened over the past few years, and it fell below the rate of inflation in April and May due to the Iran war. Energy prices have pulled back since then.Swonk expects an above-consensus 100,000 jobs. “The good news is that firms are beginning to loosen their purse strings and hire a...