I've crunched the numbers on the Clacton by-election – here's what it means for Nigel Farage

Mr Farage has seemingly been quiet in the last few weeks. Some were speculating that perhaps he was losing his appetite for the fight, as media stories about his sources of funding began to multiply. Meanwhile, his party’s lead in the polls has narrowed somewhat as a result of the modest boost that Labour have enjoyed since Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation.

But in declaring his decision to resign as the MP for Clacton Mr Farage has once again demonstrated his remarkable ability to steal the limelight. It ensures that the arrival of Andy Burnham in Downing St will not be the only political story filling the political void during the quietude of the August holiday season. Mr Farage and Reform will be much discussed too.

Of course, the decision only makes sense if Mr Farage believes he can win. That seems highly likely. He won 46% of the vote in Clacton in 2024, 18 points ahead of his second-placed Conservative rival, and the highest share of the vote for Reform anywhere. With support for Reform nationally still eleven points ahead of the 15% they won in 2024, Mr Farage ought to be able to win the by-election with more than half the vote. Anything less would represent a disappointment.

Yet the decision is not risk free. There is, after all, no guarantee that Reform’s rivals will pick up the gauntlet he has thrown down. When in 2008 David Davis, then the Conservatives’ Shadow Home Secretary, resigned his Haltemprice & Howden seat in order to campaign against extending the length of time that someone suspected of a terrorism offence could be held without charge, neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats stood against him. Although a string of independent and minority party candidates did do so, Mr Davis won a rather hollow 72% of the vote.

Of course, what Reform’s opponents themselves will have to consider is whether failing to put up a candidate will leave them looking afraid to challenge the Reform leader. After all, an ability to take on Mr Farage and win is meant to be one of the key reasons why Mr Burnham is to become Labour’s leader. Equally, Kemi Badenoch has to consider the optics of giving a free run to a party that is currently backed by many former Tory voters.

Meanwhile, irrespective of who stands against Mr Farage, he is almost bound to be expected to answer questions about the financial and other support he has received from Mr Harborne and Mr Cottrell. After all, he is looking to the voters of Clacton to endorse his position that he should not be expected to declare their support to the parliamentary authorities. Whatever his apparent reluctance hitherto, he will now want to explain to those voters the merits of his case.

John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University, and Senior Fellow, National Centre for Social Research and ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’

Our Standards: The GB News Editorial Charter