Iran war takes horrifying turn as Tehran takes fight to the Great Satan
The uneasy ceasefire between Iran and the US/Israeli/Gulf States ‘combined force' looks unlikely to last for very much longer.
The focus of the renewed tension is, of course, the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, or more accurately the right of international shipping to pass through it.
Iran, in the form of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC, has stopped commercial and naval vessels from leaving the Persian Gulf into the Gulf of Oman and beyond. Ships which have attempted the voyage have either been attacked or intercepted.
The USA, in turn, has established a blockade of all shipping going to and from Iranian ports further south in the Gulf of Oman, focused on the whole of the Iranian coastline and not just the Strait.
This was implemented in the immediate aftermath of the failed US/Iran peace talks in Pakistan.
By the start of this month, the US CENTCOM had claimed to have turned back roughly 45 vessels heading to or from Iranian ports, and President Trump claimed the blockade was costing Iran $500million per day.
In addition, the inability of Iranian oil exports to pass has led to a downturn in their oil production as storage facilities on land are near full.
In the latest developments over the weekend, it seems as if the US Navy has successfully escorted one or two ships through the Strait and claims to have sunk and destroyed a number of small IRGC boats which tried to interfere.
Iran launched airborne drone attacks on the UAE, specifically targeting the port of Fujairah, where the oil pipeline bypassing the Strait altogether ends and the location of the largest oil storage facility in the Middle East.
The impasse has resulted in a huge logjam of ships at both ends of the Strait, and the impact on global trade in general and Iran’s oil revenues in particular has been significant. What might happen next is not clear.
The USA is threatening to escort all shipping – except Iranian, of course – through the Strait come what may and visit fire and brimstone on Iran if it tries to interfere.
Tehran remains defiant and states that it will attack any shipping that attempts to make the voyage. The backdrop to all of this is the failed peace talks between the antagonists.
Their understandings of what is up for negotiation are still so far apart that it seems unlikely they will ever meet or agree on a compromise. So a return to open conflict looks increasingly likely.
Trump now faces a major problem, much of it of his own making. He can either declare victory and walk away, leaving others to clear up the mess left behind.
Tehran would understandably promote this as a huge victory over the Great Satan, and Trump would hate to be seen as a loser.
Or he can go all in, force open the Strait and resume his attack on Iran alongside the Israelis. This would be an immense military undertaking and would undoubtedly require the commitment of ground troops to secure the narrow waterway.
With the US mid-term elections looming on the horizon, it could have a significant negative impact on the American electorate.
It looks like the Iranians, for their part, are hoping they can ride this one out until Trump’s attention goes elsewhere. In the meantime, they will be recovering as best they can from the previous aerial onslaught and preparing with what they have left for the next one.
The rest of the world can only hope that wiser heads prevail and some mechanism can be found which leads to a negotiated peace settlement. But at the moment I can’t see one.
