Inflation expected to jump to a 3-year high as Iran war continues to fuel rising prices

Iran warInflation expected to jump to a 3-year high as Iran war continues to fuel rising pricesEconomists predict the Consumer Price Index will have risen to 3.8% in April, up another 0.6% from March.Listen to this article with a free account00:0000:00Inflation jumped 0.9% from February to March, the largest month-to-month jump since 2022.Michael M. Santiago / Getty ImagesShareAdd NBC News to GoogleMay 12, 2026, 5:00 AM EDTBy Steve KopackThe Consumer Price Index is widely expected to show inflation has risen to a nearly three-year high when April’s data is released Tuesday morning. Subscribe to read this story ad-free Get unlimited access to ad-free articles and exclusive content.The Iran war’s wide-ranging economic fallout has caused prices to spike, and economists and analysts project that inflation will hit 3.8%, up 0.6% from March to April, according to a survey from Dow Jones. April’s inflation reading follows an even sharper 0.9% jump from February to March. Last month’s increase was the largest month-to-month jump since 2022.As inflation continues to accelerate, it’s eating into Americans’ wages at a rapid clip.The pace of wage gains has been slowing over the past two years. In November, wages continued to rise at a pace of almost 4%. By March, that had fallen to 3.4%.If the data lines up with economists’ projections, inflation in April will have surpassed wage growth for the first time since 2023.If wages can’t keep up with inflation, the affordability crisis that has been gripping consumers could become an even larger issue than it was before the war. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to jump 0.3%, economists predict.Goldman Sachs said it expects “strong travel services inflation this month, partly reflecting passthrough of the increase in oil prices” since the U.S. and Israel went to war with Iran.“We forecast a 3% increase in airfares,” Goldman economists Jessica Rindels and Ronnie Walker said Monday. They also ex...