In Makerfield, voters on both sides are united by despair

It seems increasingly popular to decry polarisation among the British electorate. We are told that the rise of populist parties on the left and right means that voters are being pulled further apart from each other than ever before, and this in turn makes it impossible for any politician to govern. What we saw on the ground in Makerfield looked a little different. We conducted focus groups with voters on both sides of the electoral battle shaping up between Reform and Labour in the north-west constituency. And, while there was plenty they disagreed on, they had more in common than you might think.

First, these voters are engaged in this fight – unusually so for a mid-term by-election. They may be bemused by the historic nature of the vote thrust upon them, but they are strongly motivated to play their part in the fight over Britain’s future. For the first time, said one female Reform voter, “I just feel like maybe my vote could help, it could count.”

Reform and Labour voters alike are frustrated at the pace of change delivered by the Labour government; there is a strong feeling that it is simply “missing the mark”. Those sticking with Labour are certainly prepared to give them slightly more benefit of the doubt, citing a poor inheritance from the Conservatives and a hostile media environment. However, even these voters are running out of patience. Views of Keir Starmer are negative across the board, with even the more sympathetic describing him as “useless”, and the more critical “a joke” and “a liar”.

All are deeply pessimistic about the state of the country. Both Labour and Reform voters say their personal cost of living is increasing, and that they don’t see an end in sight. They feel they are working harder than ever, but that it no longer pays to work like it used to. In the words of one Labour voter, “You can have two people in a household with a relatively well-paid job, but they still can’t afford to go on holiday or anything like that.” A man who switched from Labour to Reform told us: “I’m just scared for what the future holds… I don’t think things are going to get better for us.”

It proved hard to find a policy area that these voters disagree on. They are angry not just at the current Westminster intake, but at generations of politicians whom they see as having built an economy that works against people like them. All these voters think working people are being taxed too much – which they see as particularly unfair in the face of perceived profiteering by utility companies and corporations. They also hold similar views on immigration (although Reform voters prioritise it more urgently), and want the government to spend less on migrants and more on pensions.

Surprisingly, they even agree on Brexit. Makerfield voted 65 per cent to leave in 2016, but our groups found that both those who support Farage and those who don’t, those who went with Vote Leave in 2016 and those who opted for Remain, think that Brexit has been bad for the country. They are not sure that another referendum would be good for the country and are unsure that whoever is in charge would be able to negotiate a good deal. Nonetheless, they see Brexit as a prime example of the people being let down by a political class that was not acting in their best interest.

This sense of being lied to and let down by politicians is perhaps the most palpable sentiment these voters share. When asked what they are looking for from the next MP for Makerfield, the same phrase recurred: “No more false promises.”

While Labour voters are almost hoping against their better judgement that Andy Burnham will finally be the person who can turn things around for them, a similar sentiment is found among Reform voters about their chosen party. Those voting for Farage praise Reform for its “bold” tone and policies on immigration and cost of living – but even they are far from sure that the party will be able to deliver the change it is promising. Any appeal that Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain has seems to be grounded in those doubts that Reform might be as bad as the other politicians who have let them down over the years. “Restore are just like the baby brother of Reform,” one person told us. “So I just thought we’ll give these a go. I’ll see what happens – because obviously all the rest of them pee in the same pot.”

It is extraordinary that a few thousand votes in Makerfield will, in a very real way, decide the political future of the country. Much attention will be focused on what divides these voters, but what they have in common – with each other and with much of the UK public – is even more revealing. When it comes to the key policy issues of the day, they agree on far more than they disagree. Most importantly, they are unhappy with a society they feel is stacked against people like them, and feel let down by politicians on the left and on the right.

These Labour and Reform voters will be driven to the polls in high numbers not out of true belief in their chosen parties, but out of fear that the other side will make things even worse. They lack the conviction that their party can really make a difference either, however they are still hoping that this time a leader might prove them wrong. To their minds, it would not be so difficult to do so. The advice of one voter who has switched from Labour to Reform? “Say what you mean and mean what you say, walk the talk, look after the public, support the NHS, and make working hard worthwhile.”

Scarlett Maguire is the founder and director of Merlin Strategy

[Further reading: Andy Burnham’s door-knock to Downing Street]