Ifo: Avrupa ekonomisi, ABD tarifelerinden kaynaklanan kaybı yeni ortaklıklarla telafi edebilir

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Avrupa ekonomisi, ABD tarifelerinden kaynaklanan kaybı yeni ortaklıklarla telafi edebilirAvrupa Birliği'nin (AB) yürüttüğü serbest ticaret müzakerelerinin tamamlanmasının, ABD tarifelerinin olumsuz etkilerini dengeleyebileceği ve Avrupa ekonomisine ivme kazandırabileceği bildirildi.Bahattin Gönültaş08 Nisan 2026•Güncelleme: 08 Nisan 2026Berlin Ekonomi Araştırma Enstitüsü (Ifo), Avrupa Ekonomik ve Mali Politika Araştırma Ağı (EconPol) işbirliğiyle “ABD Korumacılığı Çağında Yeni AB Ticaret Anlaşmalarının Ekonomik Potansiyeli " başlıklı analizini yayımladı. Analize göre, AB’nin yürüttüğü serbest ticaret müzakerelerinin tamamlanması, ABD tarifelerinin olumsuz etkilerini dengeleyebilecek ve Avrupa ekonomisine ivme kazandırabilecek. Yeni ticaret anlaşmalarının kapsamına bağlı olarak, sanayideki katma değer kalıcı olarak yüzde 1,1, Avrupa ekonomik çıktısı ise yüzde 0,43'e kadar artabilecek. Ifo araştırmacılarından Lisandra Flach, konuya ilişkin yaptığı değerlendirmede, "Mercosur ülkeleri, Hindistan, Avustralya, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri ve Güneydoğu Asya ülkeleriyle yapılacak yeni ticaret anlaşmaları, ABD tarifelerinin küresel ticaret üzerindeki bozucu etkilerine rağmen Avrupa ekonomisine orta vadede önemli bir destek sağlayabilir." ifadelerini kullandı. Flach, yeni anlaşmaların hayata geçirilmemesi durumunda ABD tarifelerinin Avrupa ekonomisine yüzde 0,08 oranında yük getireceğini, özellikle sanayi sektörünün yüzde 1,32'lik bir katma değer kaybıyla bu durumdan en ağır yarayı alacağını vurguladı. Analize göre, yeni ticaret anlaşmalarından tüm AB ülkeleri olumlu etkilenecek. Orta vadede GSYH’nin Almanya'da yüzde 0,47, Fransa'da yüzde 0,29 ve İtalya'da yüzde 0,33 oranında artması bekleniyor. En yüksek faydayı sağlayacak ülkeler ise yüzde 1,91 ile Malta, yüzde 1,14 ile Belçika ve yüzde 1,13 ile İrlanda olarak sıralandı. "Global Europe 2.0" vizyonu çerçevesinde ele alınan analiz; Mercosur bloku (Brezilya, Arjantin, Uruguay, Paraguay) ile Hindistan, Avustralya, Endonezya, Malezya, Tayland ve Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri'nden oluşan yedi kilit ortağa (P7) odaklanıyor. Küresel mal ithalatının yüzde 13'ünü gerçekleştiren bu ülkelerin AB ihracatındaki payının son yıllarda durağan seyrettiğine dikkat çekilen çalışmada, yeni anlaşmaların bu potansiyeli harekete geçireceği belirtiliyor. Bu arada, Ifo Ticaret Modeli kullanılarak yapılan simülasyonlar, kapsamlı anlaşmalar sayesinde AB'nin toplam ihracatının yüzde 1,3 ile yüzde 3,4 arasında artabileceğini gösteriyor. Haberi PaylaşAnadolu Ajansı web sitesinde, AA Haber Akış Sistemi (HAS) üzerinden abonelere sunulan haberler, özetlenerek yayımlanmaktadır.Abonelik için lütfen iletişime geçiniz.