IAEA chief warns of rising global nuclear arms race

ALBAWABA- The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog has warned that the world is edging closer to a new nuclear arms race, driven by rising geopolitical tensions, weakened trust in global institutions, and renewed debate over nuclear deterrence.

Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the international system designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons is under growing strain, cautioning that even a “crack” in the framework could trigger a dangerous domino effect.

He warned that escalating global conflicts could expose “a flaw in the system,” potentially encouraging non-nuclear states to reconsider their commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Grossi said the renewed public debate in countries such as Poland, South Korea, and Japan about whether they should acquire nuclear weapons has created what he described as a “very, very fragile situation.”

He also raised concern over what he called “friendly proliferation,” where allied states consider nuclear capabilities due to perceived security gaps, warning that such thinking could destabilize decades of non-proliferation efforts.

Grossi highlighted several additional risks, including what he described as the “continuous and systematic expansion” of China’s nuclear arsenal, North Korea’s rapidly advancing and opaque nuclear programme, and unresolved uncertainties over nuclear materials in Syria following the collapse of the Assad government.

He also said any potential nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran would be “an illusion” without the direct involvement of the IAEA.

Globally, he noted that nuclear tensions are rising at a time when fragmentation and conflict are weakening confidence in collective security. Under the NPT, nuclear-armed states, including the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom, are obliged to pursue disarmament, while other countries commit not to develop nuclear weapons. However, states such as India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea remain outside the treaty framework or have withdrawn.

Grossi acknowledged that while full disarmament remains an aspiration, current geopolitical realities make it unlikely in the near term. He added that growing discussions about nuclear options in regions including the Middle East, Europe, and East Asia reflect increasing insecurity, with some governments reportedly considering nuclear deterrence in response to regional threats, including Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Grossi warned that the greatest risk is not immediate collapse, but gradual erosion of the system: “A world with more nuclear-armed states would be far more dangerous than the one we have today.”