I noticed a consequential trend in new Resolve poll showing Pauline Hanson's support is on the slide: PETER VAN ONSELEN

By PETER VAN ONSELEN, POLITICAL EDITOR, AUSTRALIA Published: 01:30, 13 July 2026 | Updated: 01:31, 13 July 2026 Your browser does not support iframes. Most opinion polls are treated as snapshots of the race for government. But the latest Resolve poll reveals something more: the increasingly bitter struggle between the Coalition and One Nation to determine who becomes Labor’s primary opponent. Essentially, fighting over the political scraps. Labor leads the pair of right-wing parties with a primary vote of just 28 per cent. One Nation sits on 26 per cent (down three points), with the Coalition on 23 per cent (up three points). The Greens are at 12 per cent. The narrowing of the contest between One Nation and the Coalition is the most interesting feature of the poll. If this one poll develops into a trend where the gap keeps closing, that may define the next 18 months as we count down to the formal election campaign. This poll hardly amounts to a ringing endorsement of the Albanese government. A governing party commanding barely more than one in four votes isn’t popular in any conventional sense, and Anthony Albanese’s preferred prime minister rating of 33 per cent confirms the electorate hasn’t rediscovered its enthusiasm for him. Yet Labor remains well placed anyway, because the vote on its right flank is fractured. Combined, Labor and the Greens hold 40 per cent, leaving the government searching for another 10 points via preferences to secure a majority of the two-party vote. On the right, One Nation and the Coalition command 49 per cent support when their votes are combined.  But that’s a misleading next step for the two parties. Australian elections aren’t decided by aggregate national vote shares. They are won seat-by-seat through compulsory preferential voting. While Coalition and One Nation preferences won’t flow to each other as seamlessly as Greens preferences will flow to Labor, a substantial majority probably will. Support for Pauline Hanson's One Nation has slid in the latest Resolve Political Monitor. But one swallow does not make a summer, and one poll doesn’t make for a trend, writes Peter van Onselen But will it be enough to defeat Labor in marginal seats across the country? And how much campaigning will need to be done fighting each other, damaging both Coalition and One Nation chances of seriously challenging for government? The order of elimination in our preferential voting system is everything. Imagine Labor leading in a seat, with One Nation and the Coalition fighting for second place.  If the Coalition candidate is knocked out first, their preferences could propel One Nation past Labor.  That's assuming moderate Coalition voters don't defy the how-to-vote cards. If One Nation falls first, its preferences could propel the Coalition past Labor.  But I'm not certain anywhere near all One Nation supporters would put a Liberal or National ahead of Labor on their how-to-vote cards.  A margin of just a few percentage points might dictate who inherits the accumulated preferences of the right. The Coalition’s immediate objective, therefore, is not overtaking Labor’s primary vote nationally.  It is outlasting One Nation in enough electorates to survive the decisive stages of the preference count. Albanese's preferred prime minister rating of 33 per cent confirms the electorate has not rediscovered its enthusiasm for him The latest Resolve numbers offer Opposition Leader Angus Taylor a thin lifeline. Coalition support has ticked up three points while One Nation has dropped three. A six point gap has been halved to just three points. One swallow does not make a summer, and one poll doesn’t make for a trend. Taylor remains behind Pauline Hanson on personal leader ratings, and can’t claim a recovery off the back of a single poll.  But he is back in the fight. If this shift is repeated, the narrative moves from terminal decline to possible survival. And Taylor needs all the narrative help he can get. Another preference quirk could also save the Coalition. Labor will likely place One Nation last on its how-to-vote cards.  In seats where Labor is eliminated in third place, its preferences could ironically elect the Coalition candidate, forcing Labor voters to save their traditional enemy to block a One Nation MP. But the presence of the Greens means that their preferences will sometimes catapult Labor past at least one of the two parties of the right even when its primary vote is deflated, reducing the number of instances when Labor preferences elect Coalition candidates. National polling also masks brutal geographical realities. One Nation won’t poll 26 per cent everywhere. Its vote is likely to spike in regional and outer-suburban battlegrounds. The Farrer by-election highlighted the danger of this for sitting Coalition MPs. One Nation captured almost 40 per cent of the primary vote to seize a generational conservative stronghold, while the Liberals primary vote collapsed to just 12.4 per cent, and the Nationals to a paltry 9.7 per cent. The Coalition is losing, but the situation is no longer completely hopeless for Angus Taylor Official opposition status is determined by the number of seats in the House of Representatives, not aggregate primary votes from across the country. One Nation could trail the Coalition nationally but still decapitate it across regional Australia.  Conversely, the Coalition could use incumbency and local campaigns to cling to its status as the larger parliamentary force. The leadership figures in the Resolve poll are comparatively interesting too. Albanese rose four points to 33 per cent as preferred prime minister, while Taylor gained five points to reach 21. Hanson fell a whopping eight points to 25. She remains ahead of Taylor, but visibility carries a cost. One Nation’s surge was fuelled by voters seeking a wrecking ball for their anger over immigration, the cost of living crisis and major party failures more generally. As One Nation morphs from a protest vehicle into a prospective alternative government, its platform attracts far more intense scrutiny. Hanson’s cultural agenda and unfunded economic promises excite her base but they also risk alienating the wavering voters she needs to overhaul the Coalition. Taylor’s recent attacks on One Nation’s costings are designed to accelerate this shift, forcing voters to assess Hanson not as a symptom of their frustration but as a potential prime minister. Of course Albo benefits from exactly the same dynamic, probably more so. His improved rating reflects comparative reassurance, not renewed affection. An incumbent doesn’t need to be loved if the alternatives look reckless. With more than 18 months until the next election, One Nation has ample time to recover from a stumble, especially if economic pain deepens in the community. Its support stems from genuine grievances and can’t be dismissed as a temporary tantrum. But a three-point contraction in roughly a month shows that its rise isn’t irreversible. A federal campaign will subject the party to unprecedented scrutiny over its candidates, costings, internal discipline and the practical consequences of vying for real power. For now, Labor is unpopular but protected. One Nation is ahead but vulnerable. The Coalition is losing, but no longer completely hopeless.