‘I hate Labour, but I’ll vote Burnham’: how Reform could be derailed by tactical voting

Voters in Makerfield are preparing to “hold their noses” and engage in tactical voting to topple Sir Keir Starmer or stop the rise of Reform in this month’s by-election, local focus groups reveal.

Residents in the constituency are acutely aware they are at the centre of a “huge political storm” and “feel the weight of the moment”, sessions by pollsters More in Common show.

While focus groups were split between Reform’s candidate, Robert Kenyon and Labour’s Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham, they share “anger towards the Labour Government” and wish to “send a strong message”, said More in Common director Luke Tryl.

The 18 June by-election is set to be the most consequential in decades, as some 76,000 decide the fate of Burnham, the Labour Party, and potentially the country.

If the so-called King of the North wins, it is likely to trigger a Labour leadership contest that could see him replace Starmer as prime minister.

If Kenyon, a local plumber, takes the ‘Red Wall’ seat, it could destroy Burnham’s chances of returning to Westminster and plunge the Labour Party into yet more chaos.

While Labour won the seat in the 2024 general election with 45 per cent of the vote to Reform’s 32 per cent, there was a shift at the recent local elections, with Reform taking 50 per cent of the area’s vote compared to Labour’s 24 per cent.

More in Common conducted two focus groups in the Makerfield constituency. A mixed group was held on 19 May – the day Burnham was announced as Labour’s candidate- and a women-only group on 26 May.

Locals are well aware of the historic significance of their ballot, with one participant saying there is “a lot of pressure” to make a nationwide decision, and another saying it is a “privileged position”.

Tryl said the vote will be characterised by “tactical voting on every side”, with people planning to “vote for Burnham while holding their nose at his party, or voting Reform despite perhaps feeling drawn to Restore”.

“One thing these voters seem to share is anger toward the Labour Government and a desire to send a strong message,” he told The i Paper. “Voting against is becoming a defining feature of our politics.”

‘I’m voting for Burnham, not Labour’

He said very few people expressed “enthusiasm” for the candidate they were planning to vote for, and instead gave elaborate reasons for voting tactically to punish Labour, to keep out Reform or to back Burnham despite hating Labour.

“I’m not a Labour fan at all, but I am a fan of Andy Burnham,” said one participant, adding: “I think I’ll be voting slightly holding my nose, but voting for the person rather than the party.”

Another who plans to begrudgingly vote for Labour said: “I don’t like Labour but I don’t want Reform either.”

A potential Reform voter said they “really don’t like” Nigel Farage but could be driven to choose his party as they are “very concerned about immigration” and wish to make a “protest more than anything else”.

Restore Britain, led by Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe who left Reform after a major public fallout with party leaders last year, has cut through to voters, but the response ranged from dismissing it as a “social media party” to those on the right fearing it could “split the vote”.

“Reform would win quite easily if Rupert Lowe stood down, but I think they’ll split the vote on the right and Andy will probably sneak in,” one participant said.

Modelling by Survation shows Burnham is currently polling at 43 per cent, while Kenyon is three points behind at 40 per cent. Restore’s candidate Rebecca Shepherd is in third place at 7 per cent, which could be the difference between Reform beating Labour.

The Greens have put up a candidate, saying it is vital “voters are given a choice of who they want to vote for”. But the party is reportedly devoting limited resources to the campaign, and with their polling at 3 per cent, there is likely to be less of a vote split on the left.

Tryl said the focus groups show both Labour’s Burnham and Reform’s Kenyon have “paths to victory, but also weaknesses that could hold them back”.

“Kenyon is seen by some as a strong anti-establishment voice, particularly on immigration, but his past comments on gender and abortion risk off-putting some voters, especially some of the women we’ve spoken to,” he said.

Past social media posts have been unearthed of Kenyon claiming that women have abortions “for vanity purposes”, that they “can’t drive or give directions”, as well as agreeing with a sexually explicit tweet about Carol Vorderman.

“Burnham, meanwhile, is widely admired as a champion for Greater Manchester; people both point to specific local improvements, and see him as a refreshing challenger to Westminster – but some suspect he sees this seat as a stepping stone,” Tryl said.

“A key test for him in the coming weeks will be demonstrating that he has a real vision for Makerfield and places like it,” he added.