How Rajasthan OBC survey could help BJP pull off Haryana plan on Jats

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10px; height: 10px; } .itg-subs-condition-action-checkbox.is_checked { background: #000; border-color: #000; } .itg-subs-condition-action-checkbox.is_checked svg { display: block; } .itg-subs-condition-action-text { font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; color: #000; user-select: none; } @media (max-width: 767px) { .it_mg_bnrBox{ padding:10px} .ite_cont_dtl h4 { margin: 0; } .ite_sub_btn{grid-row:auto;} .ite_consent_wrap{ grid-column:1/-1} .ite_consent_wrap{ align-items: flex-start;} .ite_custom_checkbox{ margin-top:3px} .itg-subs-condition-action-label{ grid-column:1/-1} } How Rajasthan OBC survey could help BJP pull off Haryana plan on Jats The caste data has questioned Jat population claims, opening a route for the BJP to rally smaller OBC groups and make Jats electorally less significantAdvertisement.pagenode__2684512 #comment_box{display:none}.section__education .description.paywall .elec_stripe_iFrame {display: none;}.dark-mode .livetv__sticky svg path{stroke: #fff;} .dark-mode .livetv__sticky svg text{fill:#fff}.tbl-read-more-box {z-index:991 !important}.airtel_5g{width:0px !important;height:0px !important;}table .shopping__widget {display:none}table .inline_ad2 {display: none;}.trinity__container{display: none;} .autiostory a{display: none !important}.description table{max-width:100%;border: 0;margin-bottom: var(--widgetgap);} table tr td #teads-ad{display:none}table tr td .ads__container{display:none}ul>li div#shoppingWidgetLSH{display:none}ul>li div#shoppingWidget_mobile{display:none}.Story_story__content__body__qCd5E .Story_description__fq_4S>ul>li:has(.inline-story-add) div { display: none; }.pagetype__story ul li #checktheseout2{display: none}.newspress_rhs_widget .mframe { background: url(https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/misc/img/iphone-frame.png); }.ads_container .top_ad>* * { text-align: center; margin: 0 auto; }.ite_mg_banner:nth-of-type(2) { display: none; } .pagenode__2672529 .inline_ad2{display:none}Rohit PariharUPDATED: Aug 20, 2026 17:28 ISTEdited By: Ashish Mukherjee .ai_assist_bar2 { top:30px } The Rajasthan government’s OBC (Other Backward Classes) survey may turn out to be more than an exercise to determine reservation in local government bodies. It has produced a caste arithmetic that, analysts say, could potentially give the ruling BJP an opportunity to attempt in the state what it did in Haryana: reduce the electoral indispensability of the politically dominant Jat community by consolidating the much larger bloc of non-Jat voters. There is no indication yet that this is an explicit BJP strategy. Yet the political possibilities are hard to miss. On August 19, State Election Commissioner Rajeshwar Singh announced elections to 309 urban local bodies on September 9 and 11, with counting on September 14. This will be a major grassroots test for the Bhajan Lal Sharma government’s popularity and performance. Yet the government has separated the urban contest from the panchayati raj elections. The reservation lottery for panchayat institutions, originally scheduled for August 17-18, has been postponed to September 17-18, after the urban body election results. The sequencing is significant. Urban local body elections are fought on party lines, unlike panchayat elections. But the results of the former can indicate the relative strength of the BJP and the Congress before the state enters the far more consequential rural contest. It also means that the government’s earlier idea of effectively holding the two elections together has given way to a staggered approach. The government had faced criticism that it is delaying elections because of fears of anti-incumbency. Its explanation was that it was awaiting the OBC Commission’s report, needed to determine the reservation matrix. The report has now arrived—and its findings could themselves alter Rajasthan’s electoral calculations. The survey puts Rajasthan’s OBC population at more than 36.3 million, covering 92 communities, including five Most Backward Classes (MBC) communities. Its most striking finding is the uneven distribution within the OBC category. The latest survey estimates OBC numbers at 43 per cent of the total population, a decline from earlier estimates often based on projections of the 1931 census. Jats and Jat Sikhs are the largest group, accounting for 20.14 per cent of the OBC population, equivalent to roughly 9.2 per cent of the state’s total population. They are followed by Gurjars (9.11 per cent of OBCs/about 4.2 per cent of the state’s population), Kumhar-Kumawats (8.36 per cent/3.8 per cent), Mali-Saini-Baghwans (7.80 per cent/3.6 per cent), Jangid-Suthars (3.49 per cent/1.6 per cent), Yadav-Ahirs (3.22 per cent/1.5 per cent), and Mevs (3.02 per cent/1.4 per cent). Together, these seven communities constitute 55.14 per cent of Rajasthan’s OBC population but only about 25.3 per cent of the state’s total population. For Jats, the finding is politically sensitive. Sections of the community have long claimed a much larger share of Rajasthan’s population, sometimes putting it at 12 per cent or more. The survey’s estimate of roughly 9.2 per cent is therefore likely to be contested. But until a caste census produces a more authoritative count, the survey provides the BJP and its rivals with a new reference point. Even Gurjars at 4.2 per cent are far less than what they have always claimed while seeking a higher representation in jobs. The employment figures could prove even more consequential. The survey puts the number of OBC government employees at about 392,000. Four communities—Jat, Gurjar, Saini and Yadav—account for roughly 78 per cent of them. All other OBC communities together account for around 86,000 employees. Eighteen OBC communities have fewer than 100 members each in government service. Jats alone account for about 182,000 government employees of all kinds, nearly 46 per cent of all OBC government employees. Gurjars have 44,475, Sainis 42,912 and Yadavs 39,907. The figures create an unusual population-versus-employment contrast. Yadavs, for instance, constitute only 3.22 per cent of OBCs, but are among the four communities accounting for nearly four-fifths of OBC government employees. Gurjars constitute 9.11 per cent of OBCs but have 44,475 government employees. Jats, meanwhile, are 20.14 per cent of OBCs but account for nearly half of OBC government employees. The figures do not by themselves establish that any community has received an unfair share of jobs. But politically, perceptions of who has benefited can be more powerful than the statistical caveats. That is where the Haryana comparison becomes relevant. In Haryana, the BJP demonstrated in 2014 that it could win without relying on the state’s traditional Jat-centred political order. It consolidated non-Jat voters, including OBCs and Dalits, and installed Manohar Lal Khattar, a non-Jat, as chief minister. The strategy helped turn a fragmented social majority into an electoral counterweight to the Jats winning subsequent elections too. Rajasthan is not Haryana. Jats are less dominant numerically and have never voted uniformly. But the OBC survey has done something politically useful for anyone seeking to build a non-Jat coalition: it breaks the OBC category into 92 competing communities and demonstrates that its benefits are highly unevenly distributed. That could revive demands for sub-categorisation within OBCs. Smaller communities can now ask why a handful of groups dominate government employment while 18 communities have fewer than 100 employees each. There is a historical basis for this argument. When Jats were brought into the OBC category, sections of upper-caste leadership had argued that their relatively stronger socio-economic position could allow them to corner benefits meant for less-privileged OBC communities. The demand for protecting smaller communities through sub-categorisation subsequently lost political momentum. The new survey provides a much stronger empirical basis for reviving it. The urban reservation lottery adds another layer. Of Rajasthan’s 10 municipal corporations, six mayoral posts are reserved for women, while only Kota has been reserved specifically for an OBC woman. Jaipur, Jodhpur, Udaipur and Bikaner have general-category mayoral posts. The lottery itself cannot be interpreted as a permanent reduction in OBC representation; reservations rotate according prescribed rules. But its results, alongside the survey, are politically intriguing. The BJP’s opportunity, therefore, may not be to confront Jats directly. It is to make them less indispensable. The urban elections will provide the first indication of whether this arithmetic has electoral traction. The panchayat elections, with their deeper rural and caste networks, will offer the more decisive test. A future caste census will provide a more authoritative count. Until then, the OBC survey is the most detailed caste-wise dataset available to Rajasthan’s political class. Its biggest political consequence may be that it turns OBC politics from a single electoral bloc into a competition among communities. If the BJP can persuade smaller OBC groups that the old reservation system disproportionately benefited the dominant few, Rajasthan could be heading towards its own version of the Haryana experiment—not by defeating Jats, but by ensuring that Jats no longer determine the outcome on their own. But the Congress is led by a Jat—Govind Singh Dotasra as its state president—who will mobilise jats to vote for his party to check the BJP’s likely game plan. Subscribe to India Today Magazine Also WatchUS envoy calls Kashmir important part of India. The reality Pakistan must admitSatyendar Jain, Azam Khan in ED net. Rule of law or arm-twisting by govt?Tamil Nadu's third child policy sparks row, Congress opposes CM Vijay's moveAdvertisement.ad_300_100 .adtext{display:none;}Read ThisHow Rajasthan OBC survey could help BJP pull off Haryana plan on JatsArmed men hold woman, 56, hostage, loot Rs 75 lakh in cash, jewellery in DelhiCongo gets 70,000 Ervebo doses as Ebola outbreak surgesAdvertisement window.addEventListener("message", function (event) { if (event.data?.type === "sharelink" && event.data.shareurl) { console.log("Received sharing links and details", event.data.shareurl); window.open(event.data.shareurl, "_blank"); } }); if (itViewPort === 'mobile') { window.googletag = window.googletag || { cmd: [] }; /* ----------------------------- PAGE LOAD AD (ONLY ONCE) ------------------------------ */ googletag.cmd.push(function () { googletag.defineSlot( '/1007232/IT_ROS_Mobile_MTF_1_300x250', [300, 250], 'div-gpt-ad-1' ).addService(googletag.pubads()); googletag.pubads().enableSingleRequest(); googletag.enableServices(); 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