How Has AI Changed Hard Disk Drive Storage Demand?

InnovationEnterprise TechHow Has AI Changed Hard Disk Drive Storage Demand?ByThomas Coughlin,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Covering Digital Storage Technology & Market. IEEE President in 2024Follow AuthorMay 30, 2026, 11:36pm EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.Hard disk drivesgettyI did an analysis recently to try and determine just how much the AI data center buildout has impacted the demand for hard disk drive (HDD) storage capacity. This is tricky because just before the surge in demand for storage for AI there was a surge in demand for storage in 2021 due to Covid and then a big slump in demand in 2022 and 2023 as data centers used up the inventory that had accumulated during Covid. Capacity demand rebounding in 2024 and through 2025, when excess inventory was consumed and there was both a return to ordinary storage demand but also additional demand due to the buildout to support AI training.To make this estimate I tried to get the best fit to HDD capacity shipments from 2011 through 2019. The result of this best fit plotted over historical data from 2011 through 2025 is shown below as well as Coughlin Associates (I am the owner of Coughlin Associates) projections for continued capacity growth in 2026 through 2030.Historical and projected shipped HDD capacity and estimates of AI impact on storage demandCoughlin AssociatesThe chart also shows the estimates of additional demand above the historical growth rate that we largely attribute to AI driven demand. In 2026 we estimate that storage capacity demand without the AI buildout will be about 1,654 Exabytes (EB) with about 363EB of additional storage demand due to the AI buildout, or about 18% of the total expected capacity shipments in 2026. If we continue the projected growth, by 2028 AI additional HDD capacity demand will be about 43% of total shipments and in 2030 AI add...