Hormuz reality check: US says tankers are 'coming back' — despite Iran’s ‘chokehold’ narrative

Shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz are showing early signs of life again, with the United States Department of the Treasury signaling a cautious rebound in maritime traffic — even as war tensions with Iran continue to dominate headlines.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said vessel movement in and out of the Arabian Gulf is now "increasing day by day", describing the shift as “the beginning” of a broader recovery.

"You're starting to see more and more movement in and out of the Gulf today, and this is more than yesterday, and this is the beginning."

"I am confident that shipping traffic will continue to increase on a daily basis, even before we secure the straits."

Bessent was speaking during a Cabinet meeting on Thursday, during which he offered an optimistic outlook on the energy sector despite the ongoing hostilities with Iran.

He noted that the oil market is well supplied and pointed to a gradual resumption of maritime activity in the region.

"The oil market is well supplied," he said, predicting that more tanker traffic will begin to flow from the Middle East.

Countering Iran's Hormuz 'chokehold' narrative

The remarks offer a striking contrast to persistent reports that Iran maintains a tight chokehold over Hormuz, where attacks on tankers, mines, and drone threats had sharply reduced flows and rattled global energy markets.

At its peak, the disruption triggered fears of a prolonged supply shock, given that roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through the narrow corridor.

A shift in momentum — or strategic signaling?

Bessent’s update suggests that risk calculations among shipping firms may be changing.

Some operators appear willing to re-enter the waterway, possibly due to increased US-led naval patrols, convoy protections, and a perceived plateau in escalation.

At the same time, diplomatic currents are quietly moving.

Washington continues to insist that talks with Tehran are progressing, even as Iranian officials publicly deny formal negotiations.

Backchannel efforts — reportedly involving mediators such as Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt — are seeking an “off-ramp” to de-escalate the conflict.

This dual-track strategy — military pressure alongside renewed diplomacy— echoes earlier attempts led by US President Donald Trump, who recently claimed Iran is "eager" for a deal, even if unwilling to admit it publicly.

'Present from the right people in Iran'

Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump cryptically said that Iran “gave us a present.” He again revealed the "gift" during Thursday’s Cabinet meeting.

Trump said that Iranian officials, with whom the US is engaging in backchannel talks, are allowing “eight boats of oil” to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting it was an apparent act of good faith for negotiations.

“Well, I guess we’re dealing with the right people,” said Trump, who indicated the tankers are operating under Pakistani flags.