Hezbollah disarmament deadlock risks civil war, analysts say, as US prepares for Israel–Lebanon talks

As Israel and Lebanon return to U.S.-brokered talks Thursday in Washington, the central question is the one that has derailed every previous attempt at a lasting deal: What happens to Hezbollah, an Iran-backed terror organization?

An Israeli official told Fox News Digital that the meeting, hosted by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, will include senior U.S. officials — U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa and Counselor Michael Needham — alongside Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter and Lebanese Ambassador Nada Hamadeh.

A State Department spokesperson called the initial April 14 meeting "productive." "We will continue to facilitate direct, good-faith discussions between the two governments," the spokesperson told Fox News Digital.

The meeting comes as a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire, reached in mid-April, is holding for now, offering what officials describe as a narrow window for diplomacy after weeks of cross-border fighting.

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But the truce has not resolved the underlying conflict — only paused it.

The latest escalation began March 2, when Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel’s northern border, opening a new front in the regional war days after U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran Feb. 28, according to prior reporting.

Israel responded with sustained air and ground operations across southern Lebanon aimed at pushing Hezbollah forces away from the border, while Hezbollah continued firing rockets and drones into northern Israel.

The fighting displaced more than a million people in Lebanon and forced Israeli civilians into shelters, underscoring the scale of the escalation.

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Now, even as the guns have temporarily quieted, the core conditions that led to the war remain unchanged — leaving negotiators to grapple with the same unresolved question at the heart of the conflict.

A senior U.S. official familiar with the negotiations described the core dilemma: Hezbollah will not agree to disarm without a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, while Israel will not withdraw without Hezbollah disarming.

International mechanisms — including the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and a multilateral coordination group — have been working to bridge that gap since late 2024, without success.

The same official also indicated that Lebanon’s president, Joseph Aoun, is not necessarily the decisive factor in these discussions, but Nabih Berri, speaker of the nation's House, is the one with true authority, not Aoun.

At the same time, Hezbollah has remained opposed to any contact with Israel and continues to exert significant influence over Lebanon’s political and security decisions, complicating U.S. efforts to advance talks.

Inside Lebanon, however, frustration with Hezbollah appears to be growing.

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"There is a growing sense across Lebanon that any U.S.-brokered negotiation track could be a rare opportunity to restore balance to the state," said Rami Naeem, a Lebanese journalist and analyst with Jusoor News.

"Hezbollah’s continued military and political dominance is widely seen as a central driver of the collapse, and even a gradual or indirect opening with Israel could help rebuild state institutions and their role."

Mariam Kasrawani, a Lebanese analyst at Jusoor News, said criticism is becoming more explicit.

"It is becoming harder to ignore the depth of the crisis," she said. "Some are now saying it plainly: Hezbollah has taken Lebanon as a whole — and Shia in particular — to a very bad place."

"I’m not at all optimistic," said Barak Seener of the Henry Jackson Society think tank.

"Lebanon is far too weak and divided to force Hezbollah to disarm. And Hezbollah … is so enmeshed in Lebanon’s political system. Any attempt to disarm Hezbollah risks civil war."

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Instead, Seener said, the talks are focused on limited, tactical goals.

"Talks are focused on ceasefire expansion, Hezbollah withdrawal from border zones, and an expanded presence of the Lebanese army … talks are not at all focused on disarmament."

That gap underscores what he described as the real nature of the process.

"I think that these talks are doomed to failure," Seener said. "I think Israel is currently engaged in conflict management."

Adding to the uncertainty are reports from the Saudi daily Asharq Al-Awsat that the U.S. may press Lebanon to repeal its 1955 Israel Boycott Law, which bans contact with Israelis.

The report frames such a move as a step toward normalization but provides no details and has not been confirmed by U.S. or Lebanese officials.

Fox News Digital reached out for comment from the State Department and the Lebanese Embassy in D.C. but did not receive a response in time for publication.