Gibraltar has been warned it faces the risk of an "African invasion", just as a repeat of last week's chaos in Ceuta is feared to hit Spain.
A new report seen by GB News from think tank Facts4EU in collaboration with Stand for Our Sovereignty and The Campaign for an Independent Britain warns of a new crisis on the Rock after tens of thousands of migrants flooded into Spain from Morocco.
The report warns of the "potential risk of a mass immigration wave within weeks" to Gibraltar.
It also raises fears of a "double-whammy" thanks to a possible "imminent second invasion of Ceuta".
On August 1, a Facebook group posted to its 108,000 members a call to launch a new incursion into Spain.
The Olive Press revealed there could be as many as 478,000 people directly reached by the campaign - alongside 1.03 million members of loosely connected public groups who could answer the call and rush in once again.
Just last month, Gibraltar's Chief Minister laid claim to an open borders victory as the Rock secured its post-Brexit deal with Spain.
"For more than 300 years - since the Treaty of Utrecht made this Rock legally British in 1713 - the frontier with Spain has been the defining fault line of Gibraltarian life," Fabian Picardo said.
"And it is that fence... that scar across our story as a people, which this Treaty now begins to dissolve."
With no border checks from Spain to Gibraltar, anyone of any nationality can now cross onto British soil with ease.
Former Brexit Minister David Jones told GB News; "Once on the Rock, these people may claim asylum. Quite astonishingly they may do so - not from the Spanish but from the UK Government.
"They then become our responsibility - to house and feed them while processing their claims.
"Successful applicants will then have access to the UK where all their housing, medical, schooling and subsistence needs will be paid for by the British taxpayer.
"Article 53 of the treaty makes no provision for the return of such applicants to Spain. Gibraltar has a population of 34,000, which could easily become overwhelmed if a Ceuta-style incursion were to occur."
As far as returns to Spain go, Article 53 says the UK and Gibraltar shall take "all necessary measures" to ensure that rejected asylum seekers are removed from Gibraltar - but does not explicitly say these include returning them back to Spain.
Facts4EU's report also warned of what the consequences of a new "invasion" would look like.
"With its population of 34,000 numbering around half that of Ceuta, an invasion would completely flood the tiny British territory and cause the complete shut-down of normal life on the Rock," it says.
"Gibraltar’s residents, 99 per cent of whom voted to stay British in the last referendum, would almost certainly find themselves staying indoors, fearing for their safety."
Any migrant arriving in Ceuta has two sets of "pull factors" from both the UK and Spain to consider when attempting to reach the Spanish mainland.
Spain's recent migrant amnesty has made the country an attractive destination for "asylum seekers", who can claim benefits paid for by the Spanish taxpayer once they are naturalised.
But the Facts4EU report lays bare the "pull" of Britain and Gibraltar.
With the majority of illegal migrants being young men, Britain's comparatively lower youth unemployment rate than Spain may appear attractive, the report warns.
Gibraltar itself has an extremely low unemployment rate - and though data is lacking, reports in 2016 indicated it sat at below one per cent.
While the GDP per capita gap between the Rock and neighbouring Spanish region Andalusia is stark.
Gibraltar's sits at a healthy £75,057 - enough to rank it at 13th in the world, according to Facts4EU.
Andalusia's, however, is £20,207 - equivalent to 62nd in the world.
Tory peer Lord Redwood told GB News how the Gibraltar Treaty "leaves this special British community wide open to the disasters of the EU's borders and migration policies".
He added: "The last thing we want is a Ceuta-style humanitarian disaster as too many migrants try to take over a small town in an effort to gain entry to the wider EU for onward travel to another country.
"They might well want to go to Calais to attempt a dangerous and illegal crossing to the UK.
"The weak frontier Agreement with Spain and the EU has put Gibraltar on the front line in Europe's struggle with illegal migrants.
"It has put Gibraltar's border under Spanish control, the current weakest link in the EU border. Why take the risk?
"The new UK Government should refuse to bring the Treaty into effect, to protect the Gibraltar economy, to save migrant lives and to protect the military base and airport."
Despite most of the Ceuta migrants having been returned, as many as 5,000 remain in the Spanish exclave. None are known to have crossed to the Spanish mainland.
A few thousand people are able to travel from Ceuta to mainland Spain through formal quotas and legal pathways every year.
Any "asylum seeker" who enters Ceuta faces a lengthy wait to have their application process, with the general acceptance rate among Moroccans in Spain sitting at around three per cent.
Once in Gibraltar, migrants cannot directly claim asylum in the UK.
However, they can claim asylum on the Rock itself.
From 2016 to 2021, 14 asylum applications were made in Gibraltar. One was approved.
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