From bear hugs to handshakes: How India lost its edge with Trump while Pakistan quietly gained ground

This week, President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi came face-to-face at the G7 summit in France, their first such encounter since February 2025. Rather than his trademark bear hug, Modi greeted Trump with a smile and handshake.

Then on Wednesday, the two held a bilateral meeting. It was a friendly chat, but one that came against a backdrop of compounding tensions.

As India works at restoring its relationship with Washington, its arch-foe Pakistan has expanded its own diplomatic profile, complicating India's campaign against its nuclear-armed rival.

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For years, India built an international case against Pakistan, projecting it as an isolated or destabilizing state. This hardline stance appeared to be working, with Modi declaring to Pakistan, "India has been successful in isolating you, and we will intensify those efforts." 

But a decade later, Pakistan is rapidly emerging as a key global player in the region and beyond.

While Modi initially tried to engage Pakistan, his government’s approach eventually hardened around the mantra that "terror and talks cannot coexist."

In Washington, India has typically been favored, with Presidents Trump, Biden, Obama and George W. Bush all making visits during their time in office.

Modi built a rapport with Trump during his first term in office and was one of the first world leaders invited to the White House after Trump’s inauguration. But over the past year, that relationship has come under strain as Islamabad quietly clawed its way back to credibility.

"India misjudged Trump in term two, banking on once friendly relations," Sid Dubey, a visiting professor at Bennett University in India, told Fox News Digital. "They have yet to start recovering from that."

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The shift first became apparent in May 2025, when President Trump announced he had secured a ceasefire between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan. The fighting had come over India-administered Kashmir and was the worst in decades.

Islamabad promptly praised Trump for ending the deadly dispute and even nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize. New Delhi, however, rejected the claim, insisting the ceasefire was the result of direct bilateral talks with Pakistan.

The response reflected India’s long-standing sensitivity to third-party involvement in what it fiercely maintains is a bilateral dispute.

In the months that followed, frictions only deepened.

President Trump hit India with some of the steepest tariffs imposed on any major economy. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions pressure on Russian oil rattled energy import-dependent India, while disputes over H-1B visas added further strain. Analysts say Trump’s America First agenda increasingly overshadowed the friendship Modi had cultivated during Trump’s first term.

"When Trump unfortunately said the May 2025 clash ended because of him personally, that upset India a lot, and they made that known," Dubey said. "Then the tariffs were another slap in India’s face. Meanwhile, Pakistan took advantage, leaving India at a bit of a loss. From there, relations fell further with the Iran conflict."

India is among the countries most indirectly affected by the strategic fallout from the Iran war, facing economic pressure and mounting energy concerns.

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Last week, a U.S. strike further exacerbated tensions after three Indian seafarers became collateral damage in the conflict. They were the first and only seafarers confirmed killed as part of the U.S. blockade, sparking outrage across India.

New Delhi instantly summoned Washington’s Chargé d’Affaires Jason Meeks, expressing deep concern over the renewed attacks and arguing that its nationals were becoming casualties in a war not their own.

India also warned of the broader humanitarian, economic, and energy consequences of the conflict, which are expected to linger even as an agreement has now been reached.

All the while, Pakistan was gaining diplomatic visibility, finding itself in the unusual position of currying favor in Washington while maintaining deep ties with China, Iran and the Gulf states.

Pakistan’s prominent role in recent months highlighted how Islamabad has been more nimble in its diplomacy than India," Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Sadanand Dhume told Fox News Digital. "Additionally, Pakistan decisively outmaneuvered India’s quixotic bid to isolate Pakistan on the world stage."

Regional dynamics have also been reshaped by the two rivals' competing strategies. India has deepened its strategic partnership with the U.S. through alliances such as the Quad partnership with the U.S., Australia, and Japan and has expanded cooperation across South Asian states, including a burgeoning relationship with Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s growing regional relevance has been reflected in its strengthened ties with China, improved relations with regional partners like Bangladesh and expanded security cooperation with Gulf states.

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Additionally, Trump, who accused Pakistan of "deceit and lies" during his first term, has since repeatedly praised its leadership. In June 2025, the president invited Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir to the White House for a high-profile lunch meeting.

Munir was the first Pakistani military chief who was not also president to be hosted by a U.S. president. He also led the war effort against India earlier that year. 

Trump described Munir as his "favorite Field Marshal" and an "exceptional human being." 

Their relationship has been further reflected in trade deals and, most recently, Pakistan’s role as a principal mediator in restoring diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran.

"India tried to make Pakistan an international pariah. Instead, Pakistan has wormed its way into Trump’s good books through a combination of concrete co-operation with the U.S. and outrageous flattery of the president, leading to Trump elevating Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif as heroes," Dhume said.

India, meanwhile, has maintained close ties with Israel while generally sticking to more measured messaging. 

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On June 15, upon the agreement of a deal with Iran, Modi released a statement, saying, "India hopes that the implementation of this understanding will help restore peace and stability in the region and ensure the freedom of navigation and commerce."

"Hats off to Pakistan. They worked really hard to bring this awfully disruptive war with Iran to an end," Dubey told Fox. "India unfortunately lost out by not seeking to be a problem solver like Pakistan. It could have played its cards better as a peacemaker, given its traditionally strong relations with Tehran."

Still, analysts caution these are rapidly evolving dynamics. There is no guarantee that Pakistan’s current moment will last, and the tide for India could still turn.

"Pakistan’s mediation role has allowed it to substantially reset its international image. It has positioned itself as a responsible international actor rather than a rogue state responsible for both nuclear proliferation and exporting Islamic terrorism. How long this lasts depends in large measure on two things: will Pakistan find a way to remain in Trump’s good books, and will it be able to change its behavior sufficiently to convince the world that it has indeed turned over a new leaf," Dhume told Fox News Digital.

Meanwhile, India is working to regain its position and show the U.S. it is still a reliable partner.

Marco Rubio visited India last month, his first since becoming Trump’s top diplomat last year, which was widely seen as an attempt to reset ties. 

Trump and Modi's G7 meeting marked another significant step. 

Trump praised Modi as "calm, cool and totally killer" and said he would be traveling to India "sometime in the future." India has been pressing Trump for a visit, potentially as part of a broader meeting involving Japan and Australia.

Trump also said the United States would defend India.

"If anybody attacks that man, we're going to be there," Trump said, referring to Modi. "Now, if there’s a new leader, I’m not sure about it."

The Pakistani and Indian governments did not respond to Fox News Digital requests for comment.