Foster Griffin and the Nationals offer sharp baseball betting value in Houston Astros series finale

This has been a very streaky baseball betting season for me. I know there are times that I've struggled, but in those moments, the key is to limit the damage.

When you're winning, as we have been over the last week, you want to reinvest your money and maybe even up the unit size. The key, though, is not to get crazy. Don't empty the bankroll just because you're on a hot streak. I feel confident in today's play, but I'm still not going to over-invest in the position. Let's break down what we should bet on in the Houston Astros and Washington Nationals matchup.

The Houston Astros are still hanging around. I suppose they are probably right where they are supposed to be. Looking at the Astros roster, it isn't terrible, but it isn't great, either. They certainly have some bright spots, and injuries have impacted them. However, the team is still just two games under .500 and has a real possibility of making a run for a division that no one seems to want to win. I expect them to make some moves at the trade deadline, as they've been aggressive in multiple seasons.

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The team could probably use some extra arms for their rotation, as well as some extra hitting. Their team turns to Spencer Arrighetti today, who has had a nice campaign to this point. He is 7-4 for the season with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. If he can control the ball, he is very tough to beat. He has allowed 38 walks this season and 58 hits over 78 innings pitched. He has been worse on the road by a full run, and almost 75% of his walks have come on the road. Perhaps the craziest part of his season is that June was terrible for him. He has 14 starts - in the nine outside of June, he has allowed eight earned runs. In five June starts, he allowed 25 earned runs.

The Washington Nationals are ahead of schedule. I don't exactly expect the team to make a postseason run, but for a team that was expected to be among the worst in MLB, I have to give them some credit. They are above .500, and this could be a great year for their young players to experience the playoff push. That's a big deal for a young club, but they need to find a way to keep the momentum going not only this season, but next year as well.

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It will be interesting to see if they keep every asset they have on the club. For example, Foster Griffin, today's starter, is 30 years old, but is 9-2 for the season, has a 2.87 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP. This is by far the best season of his career, but is he a late bloomer, or is this a flash in the pan? Perhaps this is just that he finally got an opportunity and nailed it. He was very good in Japan, so maybe he figured things out. He only has a one-year deal, so a big contract could be coming, which might prompt the Nationals to trade him. He's been great and has an opportunity to continue to be awesome.

Both teams are looking to get a win in this series. The Nationals took the opener in a high-scoring game, winning 12-11. In yesterday's game, the Astros got their revenge and won 6-3. The wind is blowing out at the ballpark today, so I do expect it to be slightly high scoring once again. I'm not really sure I want to take on the total considering it is at 9.5, but I do lean to the over.

Both of these pitchers have their benefits, but I think the problem is that Arrighetti hasn't been quite as crisp on the road. Griffin has been a great pitcher regardless of where he is pitching, and I think we still get a good value on him. Give me the Nationals to win today as we back Griffin once again.

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