For agri growth in volatile world, look beyond farm gate

Tensions in West Asia have again exposed the fragility of the global supply chains India’s agriculture depends on, with higher input costs, volatility in fertiliser and energy supplies, and disruptions in freight and logistics. But focusing only on short-term disruptions misses the larger point. Input shocks may recur, given the nature of global energy and trade dependencies. The real question is how India sustains its agricultural growth trajectory despite this volatility. Investments beyond the farm gate — processing, storage, logistics, and market integration — can strengthen domestic consumption and India’s position in global agri-value chains. Deeper integration into these value chains also creates more diversified and stable linkages, which can ease some of the vulnerabilities on the input side. The India–EU FTA is an opportunity. Indian agricultural commodities will see limited direct tariff relief, but it signals a shift towards a value-led growth model for Indian agriculture. European demand for agri-food is shaped more by regulation than tariffs. Market access depends on food safety audits, residue limits, sustainability disclosures, and compliant packaging with robust documentation. This regulatory intensity explains where future value creation will concentrate. Today, India’s agriculture economy is valued at around $600 billion and could cross $1 trillion over the next decade if value-added processing and market linkages scale. Getting there will require Indian agribusinesses to integrate into global agri-value chains. The India–EU FTA is only a starting point. Opportunities will emerge across the Middle East, Central and Southeast Asia, and Africa. By lowering uncertainty across goods trade and investment flows, such agreements incentivise the economics of building export-oriented agri-processing capacity. Several Indian sectors illustrate how this plays out on the ground. Processed foods and beverages reach European consumers in modest but growing volumes. Exporters who invested in consistent sourcing, compliant packaging, and audit-ready systems have built durable positions. Tea and coffee tell a similar story, as do spices and seafood. But the same forces that reward capability also increase inequality. Smallholders without aggregation, weakly governed FPOs, fragmented logistics, and limited access to testing infrastructure face disadvantages. Value-led agriculture trade risks becoming enterprise-led rather than farmer-inclusive. These challenges are policy-solvable. They fall into three areas: Infrastructure (uneven laboratory and testing capacity), policy stability (export bans and abrupt reversals that weaken buyer confidence), and institutional capability (FPOs expected to deliver outcomes without adequate governance or capital). Where these gaps have been addressed, results are visible. Export relationships stabilise when testing access improves, contracts lengthen, and compliance responsibilities are clearly allocated. For policymakers, the implication is both encouraging and demanding. Public investment in testing infrastructure, certification support, trade policies, and stronger Centre–state coordination can widen participation and reduce exclusion. For agribusiness leaders, the big bets are clear. Investment in processing, cold storage, testing, traceability, long-term buyer engagements, and branding credibility is no longer optional. The task now is to institutionalise and scale what already works, and ensure smallholder farmers are stakeholders in value creation. The writer is associate partner at a global management consulting firm