Fears of new massacre in Sudan’s el-Obeid: What do we know?

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International groups fear it is on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) tighten their siege on the city. With attack drones raining down on civilian areas and military reinforcements massing outside the city, there are mounting concerns of more mass killings by RSF forces as seen in el-Fasher. The city is strategically important in Sudan’s grinding war, which has pitted government forces against the renegade RSF militia force. It is the primary gateway linking Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, 550km (340 miles) to the northeast with the vast Darfur region. It is also a major military stronghold of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) 5th Infantry Division, known as Al-Hagana or “Camel Corps”, and also hosts an airbase, a major oil pipeline and a large gum arabic market. About 500,000 residents lived in the city, which has become a refuge for nearly 100,000 displaced people fleeing violence in Darfur and other regions. Kholood Khair, a researcher in Sudanese affairs, said that the battle for el-Obeid is about “power, land and money”. The siege has seen the price of food surge by up to 300 percent, with much of the population unable to afford the rising costs or to reach a safe destination. The RSF has escalated its attacks on civilian infrastructure. An open-source investigation revealed that at least 16 civilian and service targets have been damaged, including hospitals, schools, power stations and fuel depots. In one harrowing incident, eight students at the “Jeel Al-Raid” school were injured when drone shrapnel pierced their classrooms while they were studying. Attacks have crippled electricity and water services, forcing residents such as 35-year-old Aqsam Mohammed to walk long distances just to secure murky, undrinkable water for her seven children. Nihad al-Tayeb from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) reported RSF military movements about 60km east, south and west of the city. Mohamed Rifaat of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) warned that el-Obeid is approaching a total siege that will soon render civilians “unable to leave or return safely”. He warned that conditions there could soon match el-Fasher, where UN estimates suggest more than 6,000 people were killed in the first three days of its fall. Amnesty International accused the RSF on Thursday of committing crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing during the massacres in el-Fasher. A coalition of 46 Sudanese, regional and international nongovernmental organisations have issued an urgent appeal demanding an unconditional humanitarian truce while warning of an imminent catastrophe. The UN Human Rights Council is scheduled to hold an urgent debate on Friday. It was formally requested by a core group of nations – including Britain, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and Norway – which issued a stark warning that “approximately 500,000 civilians are at risk of being targeted in large-scale atrocities”. However, political efforts remain gridlocked. The Sudanese foreign ministry recently denied rejecting a US proposal to end the war, describing statements made by Massad Boulos, an adviser to US President Donald Trump, as “inaccurate”. The ministry insisted it engaged constructively with the proposal and remains committed to the May 2023 Jeddah declaration. As political manoeuvres stall, it is feared that the window to save hundreds of thousands of civilians in el-Obeid is rapidly closing. 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