FA Cup semi-final odds: Can Leeds expose Chelsea’s struggles?

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Jacques Feeney / Offside via Getty Images Share articleChelsea’s march to the FA Cup semi-finals has been emphatic, but this weekend they face their first significant test. With 20 goals scored in the competition so far, the FA Cup has brought much-needed breathing space for Chelsea. Goals have flowed, games have been fun. The problem is that all of their opponents have been lower-league opposition. Chelsea have eased past teams they were expected to overwhelm and, as they prepare to face Leeds United at Wembley, we wait to see whether Chelsea are genuinely a strong cup side, or just flat-track bullies. Having lifted the FA Cup eight times in their history, the oldest cup competition in world football has always mattered to Chelsea. It carries extra weight this season, considering how the 2025-26 campaign has crumbled. Out of the Champions League and sitting eighth in the Premier League table following Tuesday’s defeat to Brighton, Chelsea need something to cling to. FA Cup success could lift the gloom. At 11/4, Chelsea are second-favourites to lift the trophy at Wembley Stadium on May 16, with Manchester City seen as the frontrunners to complete what could be a domestic treble for Pep Guardiola and his players. Chelsea certainly don’t have a treble to target. They do not even have a permanent manager, following the dismissal of Liam Rosenior on Wednesday. The 41-year-old lasted just 106 days and 23 matches in the job at Stamford Bridge, but was dismissed after a run of five successive Premier League defeats that has put Chelsea’s top-five place in serious doubt. In the FA Cup, though, Chelsea have made short work of opponents. They beat Charlton 5-1, Hull City 4-0, Wrexham was decided in extra time 4-2, and then Chelsea saw off Port Vale 7-0 on their way to the final four. As convincing as Chelsea’s results have been over the course of this run, Leeds will be the first Premier League-level opponent they have faced. Recently the team have lacked conviction. Since beating Port Vale in the FA Cup quarter-finals, Chelsea have failed to score a single goal in three outings. Against Brighton on Tuesday, the Blues registered just 0.37 in expected goals (xG) and failed to chart a single shot on target. Against Manchester United in the match before that, Chelsea registered an xG of 1.57 and hit the woodwork three times, but still failed to find the back of the net, revealing a lack of ruthlessness. Liam Delap has scored just once in 2026 while Joao Pedro’s form has been inconsistent, notching just once in six games, dating back to Chelsea’s fifth-round victory over Wrexham. Chelsea’s talent advantage has been enough to carry them through to the semi-final stage, but they have lacked a coherent game plan and identity to impose themselves on stronger opponents. Leeds have beaten them once already this season and could be Chelsea’s worst nightmare at Wembley, as Daniel Farke’s side are set up to exploit many of the weaknesses that ultimately cost Rosenior his job. While Rosenior placed a focus on Chelsea playing out from the back, he lacked the technicians to make this approach work. Leeds will surely look to expose this by pressing from the front. In quick transition, Leeds have Brenden Aaronson and Noah Okafor to get in between the lines and get their team moving forward at pace. The pair have combined for 17 goal contributions in the Premier League this season. Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s physicality could unsettle a Chelsea backline that has conceded seven goals in three games. The Leeds striker’s World Cup chances would be bolstered by a big showing at the national stadium. Calvert-Lewin is 21/10 to score at any time against Chelsea this weekend, while Aarson and Okafor are 4/1 and 3/1 respectively. Set pieces might be another area where Leeds can hurt Chelsea. Only Arsenal and Manchester United have scored more goals from set-piece situations than the Elland Road side this season. Worryingly for Chelsea, only Bournemouth and West Ham have conceded more set-piece goals than they have in the Premier League this season, hinting at a key battle for Sunday’s encounter. There’s no doubt Chelsea have talent in their squad. The club has spent hundreds of millions on some of the best young players in the world since BlueCo’s takeover in 2022. Far too often, though, the Blues play like a collection of individuals rather than a team unit. Leeds, on the other hand, are more than the sum of their parts. This is reflected in their current run of three wins and a draw in the past four games. Chelsea could feasibly respond positively to the departure of Rosenior, with Calum McFarlane back in charge for his second interim spell of the season. The former youth team coach may set up Chelsea differently for the clash against Leeds on Sunday, but many of the Blues’ problems can be traced back to Enzo Maresca’s time in charge. They might not be so quickly eradicated. In a sense, Chelsea’s route to the semi-final could prepare them for taking on Leeds. They were favourites in every round to date and will be favourites again here. Chelsea boast the third-highest average possession share in the Premier League. They are usually set up to dominate the ball and Leeds (15th for average possession share) will let them do it. Leeds, however, have far more attacking threat than Charlton, Hull, Wrexham and Port Vale. They have good reason to be confident. If Chelsea thought their recent run of losses had been painful enough, Sunday could present a new nadir if Leeds United highlight how sacking Rosenior won’t fix anything by itself. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms