Expert issues dire warning as Australia's 'troubling' fertility rate falls to all-time low

By ASHLEY NICKEL, NEWS REPORTER, AUSTRALIA and SARAH BROOKES - SENIOR REPORTER, AUSTRALIA Published: 10:46, 2 August 2026 | Updated: 10:46, 2 August 2026 Australia's birth rate has dropped to its lowest level on record, with just 1.48 births recorded per woman. The Australian Bureau of Statistics last week released fertility data for 2024 and found the number of babies being born per woman has continued to drop. The total fertility rate is the average number of children an Australian woman is expected to have between the ages of 15 and 49. A slight increase was recorded to 1.69 in 2021, following Covid lockdowns, but levels fell every year after, hitting 1.49 in 2023.  Australia's birth rate has been below replacement level, 2.1, since the mid 1970s.  Australian National University demographer and Senior Lecturer Liz Allen believes that the plummeting birth rate has reached a critical tipping point, warning it would be 'very difficult to reverse' if levels drop below 1.4. 'That decline then gets to 1.3, then the decline gets to 1.2 … and once we hit 1.2, it's done. You're done like a dinner,' she told News24. Dr Allen warned Australia could face an ageing population - like those in South Korea and Japan - if the birth rate didn't improve soon. Australia's fertility rate (above) sunk to its lowest on record in 2024 at 1.48 births per woman (stock image) Australia's birth rate has been below the replacement level since the mid 1970s South Korea's fertility rate slipped below 1.4 in 1999 and plummeted to 0.75 in 2024. Japan's birth rate was 1.4 in 2015 but hit a record low of 1.14 in 2025.    Dr Allen believes that housing affordability, economic security, gender equality and climate change were factors in Australia's fertility decline. 'What we're seeing is this declining total fertility rate is perhaps an indication of something troubling, and that is the hurdles to having much-wanted children are insurmountable,' she said. 'That's the human catastrophe and it all kind of sits within this fear about tomorrow, uncertainty and a loss of hope.' Australian women having children later in life also played a role in the drop. The median age of first-time mums was 25.8 years in 1975, but jumped to 32.1 years in 2024. Professor Roger Wilkins, deputy director of the Melbourne Institute and co-director of the HILDA Survey, earlier this month suggested 'a healthy immigration program' could help supplement an aging population. However, migration alone cannot shield Australia from the economic and labour consequences of a rapidly ageing population. Australian National University demographer and senior lecturer Liz Allen warned that fertility rates would be 'very difficult to reverse' if levels drop below 1.4 Australia could face an ageing population if the birth rate does not increase (stock image) Professor Wilkins warned labour shortages are likely to worsen as the proportion of Australians in their prime working years shrinks, placing further pressure on the nation's ability to sustain living standards and economic growth. 'Employment will very much follow that,' he said. 'We will see a decline in the share of the population that is in those prime working ages and ultimately that's where economic output and economic growth comes from. 'So as that declines as a share of the population, the outlook for living standards and economic growth more generally is poor.' Futurologist Rocky Scopelliti told the Daily Mail other countries with declining birth rates, like Japan, have been forced to mend the labour gap with technology. 'Australia cannot solve an ageing population through migration alone, and it cannot solve it through robots alone,' he said. 'Japan provides an important glimpse into the demographic pressures Australia may face if low fertility becomes deeply entrenched. 'Japan's declining birth rate and ageing population have contributed to severe workforce shortages, particularly in health and aged care, and the country is increasingly investing in AI-enabled robotics to assist with physical care, household activities, mobility, monitoring and daily living. Factors like 'housing affordability, economic security, gender equality and climate change' were attributed as reasons for the declining rate  'Recent Japanese research includes advanced humanoid systems capable of helping people sit up, repositioning patients, preparing food and assisting with household tasks. 'Australia should learn from Japan but not simply copy it.' However, Dr Allen argued the real solution was much simpler as she called on the federal and state governments to give everyday Aussies hope of a stable, and affordable, future. 'The type of change and reform that would be required to policy settings is unpalatable to the Australian electorate,' she said. 'But the problem is now that if no change is made, the mess continues and the mess will not only continue but it gets worse.'