EV Sales In Europe Jump With Oil Prices, But Long-Term Impact Unlikely

InnovationTransportationEV Sales In Europe Jump With Oil Prices, But Long-Term Impact UnlikelyByNeil Winton,Senior Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. U.K.-based Neil Winton covers the European Auto industry.Follow AuthorMay 14, 2026, 09:40am EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.Iran oil industry concept, industrial illustration - growing graph on Iran flag background. 3D IllustrationgettyElectric vehicle afficionados are lauding the increase in sales because of the Iran war-induced increase in oil and natural gas prices, but this increased demand is likely to be temporary.Forecasters are updating their predictions for the next couple of years but longer-range predictions remain more or less unchanged, suggesting that demand will get nowhere near the EV monopoly in new vehicle sales demanded by the European Union by 2035.HSBC Global Investment Research has just updated its EV sales forecasts in a report responding to high oil prices.HSBC said its prediction for EV market share in Europe this year increased to 23.0% from its previous 22.0%, 2027 to 28.5% (26.5%). 2030 and 2035 remain unchanged at 45.0% and 87.5%. In 2025, EV share was 18.1%. HSBC also published prominent forecaster Rho Motion’s predictions, less than its own, and in a different universe for 2035. For 2026 Rho Motion predicts 21%, for 2027 28.1% and 38.9% for 2030. For 2035, Rho Motion is almost 20 percentage points behind HSBC at 67.6%.2030 was supposed to be all-electricThis big discrepancy is a reminder that the recent conventional wisdom accepted that as soon as 2030, most car and SUV production would be electric. Volvo, Ford Europe, VW’s Bentley and Mercedes said they only planned to make EVs by then and were forced to recant. Other recent published forecasts include investment researcher Jefferies, which expects a European EV market share of 42% in 2030, 65.0% for 20...